New Delhi: When Prashant Kishor entered Bihar’s electoral fray with Jan Suraj, he set out to challenge the state’s entrenched caste politics with a different pitch – one focused on governance failures, migration and the promise of jobs. The message found an audience. However, the votes did not follow.The teenager’s transformation from renowned strategist to politician was unsuccessful, highlighting how difficult it is for political outsiders to break down systems built on long-standing loyalties and social networks.As Tamil Nadu In the run-up to another assembly election, a familiar outsider story is once again taking shape. Actor Vijay Thalapathi has established himself as an option for the people in the state where politics has, for a very long time, revolved around the Dravida Munnetra Kashagan.DMK) and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK).but will Victory Will Prashant Kishore meet the same fate? There is one main difference. This is Tamil Nadu – a state where cinema not only entertains but also rules.
Tamil Nadu politics’ connection with cinema
Film stars are worshiped like gods in Tamil Nadu. Before the screening of their films, fans bathe tall cut-outs of these stars with milk. Many stars even have temples across the state.This level of popularity could be one of the reasons that motivates these stars to move towards politics and attempt to convert their fan base into a voter base. The best examples are MG Ramachandran and Jayalalitha, who moved from active stardom to occupy top positions in the state. While MGR served as the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu for more than a decade, Jayalalitha remained the Chief Minister for more than 14 years across six terms.Similarly, many other actors like Rajinikanth, Kamal Haasan, Sivaji Ganesan and Vijayakanth experimented with politics and became full-time politicians.However, many stars could not convert their stardom into votes and fell face down during the voting.Kamal Haasan launched his own party – Makkal Needhi Maiam – in February 2018, positioning it as a centrist, non-Dravidian alternative to the DMK and AIADMK. However, the party failed to win even a single seat in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In the 2021 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, Kamal Haasan himself contested from Coimbatore South but lost to BJP.Additionally, according to election records, the MNM could garner only a little more than 2.6 percent of the statewide vote.In March 2024, MNM joined the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance ahead of the general elections, choosing alliance building rather than ideological isolation. Haasan was later offered a Rajya Sabha seat as part of the coalition’s power-sharing arrangement.Rajinikanth also made an exciting announcement to his fans that he will be launching a political party and claimed that his organization will contest all the 234 assembly seats in the state.However, he soon made a U-turn and abandoned plans to enter politics, citing health concerns.“It is with great sadness that I say that I cannot enter politics. Only I know the pain I felt while announcing this decision,” Rajinikanth said in a three-page statement.He said, “I will serve the people without getting into electoral politics. My fans and people will be disappointed by this decision of mine, but please forgive me.”
How is Vijay different from Rajinikanth and Kamal Haasan?
Unlike Rajinikanth and Kamal Haasan, Vijay has decided to bid goodbye to films after a career spanning 33 years.His upcoming film Jana Nayakan (if released) will be his last film.Vijay, 51, said, “Politics is not a timepass for me. It is a deep pursuit. I want to immerse myself completely in politics. After completing my responsibilities towards another film I have signed for, I have decided to dedicate myself completely to the service of the people.”Meanwhile, actors like Kamal Haasan and Vijayakanth faced adverse election results after they decided to remain active in both films and politics.By moving away from cinema altogether, Vijay is attempting to overcome the lack of credibility that has historically plagued actor-politicians. Full-time political commitment – ​​rather than episodic engagements between film releases – has often been a prerequisite for voter confidence in Tamil Nadu, as demonstrated by stalwarts like MGR and Jayalalithaa in the state.
can do TVK Convert fan frenzy into votes?
Ahead of the upcoming elections, TVK has been successful in drawing crowds. In October 2024, TVK attracted over 8 lakh people during its first state conference in Vikravandi.Thousands of people come to Vijay’s rallies to listen to him or get a glimpse of him. The superstar has supporters from every class, gender and age group in different areas of Tamil Nadu.Unlike many film stars, Vijay’s supporters are organized and politically active. In the 2021 local body elections, his “fan club” candidates won 115 of the 169 seats they contested.Meanwhile, their fan clubs have also played the role of foot soldiers on social media and regularly organize blood donation camps, free medical checkups, education support drives and disaster-relief work.Additionally, TVK has a significant presence on social media. Vijay has claimed that his party has the biggest social media power in India.He had said, “TVK’s social media army is the biggest in India – not just our claim, but what others are saying after seeing it. You are no longer just a fan on social media; you are TVK’s virtual warrior.”Yet, Tamil Nadu’s electoral history shows that crowd mobilization does not automatically translate into seat changes. Booth-level organisation, caste arithmetic and coalition mathematics are playing decisive roles – factors that even popular actors have struggled to master in their first electoral innings.After the Karur stampede, Vijay’s staunch fans defended him and his party even after he disappeared from the radar of the TVK top leadership.
ghost of brutal stampede
However, Vijay and his party may also have to bear the brunt of the stampede in Karur, in which 41 people lost their lives. Both AIADMK and DMK have blamed TVK officials and accused Vijay of mismanagement which allegedly led to the chaos in September last year.Moreover, the CBI is also questioning Vijay in the stampede case, thereby wasting a large part of his time, which could otherwise have been used for pre-poll strategy or campaigning.On January 19, the central probe agency questioned the TVK chief for the second time for over six hours at its headquarters in New Delhi in connection with the stampede case.According to officials, several questions were asked related to his knowledge of decision-making about the rally, reasons for its delay, continuity of the speech, anarchy, voting and mismanagement of the crowd.He said the decision to hold accountable the individuals in the charge sheet will be taken only after a thorough analysis of the statements of the actor, senior political officials of his party and police and district administration officials involved in sanctioning and managing the rally.Politically, the impact of the investigation remains unclear. While rival parties have tried to present the stampede as evidence of administrative inexperience, some in Vijay’s supporting base see the investigation as pressure politics – a story that could either erode trust or strengthen sympathy, depending on how the case unfolds closer to voting.
Prospects for TVK
Since independence – except for a brief stint of Congress rule – the post of Chief Minister in Tamil Nadu has largely alternated between the two Dravidian parties – DMK and AIADMK. Vijay’s entry into state politics as a challenger has given a third option to the voters.At the same time, Vijay’s rise has started new calculations for both DMK and AIADMK. While the DMK is worried about losing a portion of its youth and urban votes, the AIADMK is closely watching whether the TVK makes a dent in its traditional base or cuts deeply into the ruling party’s support.Amid reports that the BJP is pressurizing him to join the NDA – citing the CBI probe into the Karur stampede and the CBFC’s stay on certification of his film Jana Nayakan – Vijay has said he will not succumb to any pressure.He said that TVK will contest the assembly elections on its own and win if other parties choose not to form an alliance with it. Vijay asked his party officials and workers to be clean, saying, “Unlike the party that ruled and is ruling, we will not allow corruption… I will not touch even a single penny, you know I don’t need to touch that.”Cleaning the system can’t be done overnight, he said, “it’s a process.”Even if TVK emerges only as the third largest party, its presence could change the political arithmetic of Tamil Nadu. In a fractured mandate, a strong TVK performance could propel Vijay into the role of potential kingmaker – reshaping the alliance and the bargaining power within the state.In a three-way contest, it will be interesting to see whether Vijay can emerge as the winner – or whether his entry splits the votes to the benefit or loss of the DMK or AIADMK.Just like the box office decides whether a film will be a hit or a flop, similarly the election results will tell whether Vijay succeeds or fails in his political endeavour.
