Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, summed up his country’s esoteric pragmatism as the US-Israeli war over Iran spreads to the oil-rich Arab world and engulfs the global economy. “We must secure benefits for ourselves wherever possible,” he said this week, “no matter how blasphemous it may sound.”
as west asia descends into chaos Following the American and Israeli attacks on Iran – and the subsequent retaliation Missiles, drones and oil-crisis strategy – The geopolitical paradox is hard to ignore.
Russia is reportedly providing Iran with satellite imagery and drone-targeting tactics to facilitate retaliatory strikes against US forces and their bases and facilities. united arab emiratesOman, Qatar and other US-Israeli allies. Besides, it is also gaining huge financial benefits from the war policy of US President Donald Trump. This provides Moscow with vital revenue that is clearly needed to maintain its currency. invasion of ukraine.
Russia-Iran transactions are also a reciprocal relationship, established during the Ukraine conflict when Russia relied heavily on Iranian-made Martyr attack drones.
Britain’s Defense Secretary John Healey has said, “It would not surprise anyone to believe that Putin has a hidden hand behind some of Iranian strategy and possibly even some of their capabilities.” He also said that “the pattern of the Iranian attack mirrors the way Russia attacked Ukraine”.
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Expert observers believe Russia is also sharing sensitive information about countering US-made weapons, such as Patriot and ATACMS missiles, which it has encountered on the Ukrainian battlefield.
Former senior US intelligence official Andrea Kendall-Taylor said, “The lessons learned during the war in Ukraine have been materializing, but the implications are here now. We are seeing it happen in real time, in a real case.”
Trump’s ‘1980s playlist’ and Putin’s oil windfall
The conflict has completely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, causing what the International Energy Agency (IEA) described as “the largest oil supply disruption in history”.
President Trump has had to respond to the resulting energy crisis. Temporarily lifting the ban on Russian oil.
The US Treasury Department has issued a 30-day waiver, valid until April 11, allowing the sale and delivery of Russian crude and petroleum products currently “stranded” at sea.
Treasury Secretary Scott Besant defended the measure: “The temporary increase in oil prices is a short-term and temporary disruption that will result in huge benefits to our country and economy in the long term”.
Russian officials say the waivers would affect about 100 million barrels of Russian crude, the equivalent of about a day’s global production.
Trump has Keep comms channels open with Putin, That has upset America’s European partners who see the oil-sales rebates as a funding funnel for Putin’s Ukraine war. Trump spoke to Putin on March 9. US special envoy Steve Witkoff said in an interview: “The Russians said they’re not sharing – that’s what they said, so we can take them at their word.”
One prominent analyst said Trump’s foreign policy agenda is “like a Spotify 1980s playlist, playing the same tunes four decades later” – leading to chaos in the world. “Among the highlights of his golden old days: befriending Moscow, bombing Iran, demeaning NATO and making trade tariffs great again,” Mark Champion wrote for Bloomberg Opinion on Friday.
Is China also aiding Iran is another question being asked in US and global policy circles.
US opposition Democratic Party senator Richard Blumenthal said earlier this week that Russia was assisting Tehran “actively and intensively, both through intelligence and perhaps in other ways” and added that “China may also be assisting Iran”.
But Chinese embassy spokesman Liu Pengyu in Washington said in a statement that he “protests baseless allegations” about Beijing’s involvement. He said that China is playing a constructive role in reducing tension and restoring peace.
Is there a ‘smeratenomica’ factor?
For Russia, rising oil prices, with Brent crude reaching $100 a barrel, are a lifeline for an economy headed for all-out war. Economist Vladislav Inozemtsev has dubbed this phenomenon “smartonomica” or “economy of death”.
The Russian state is currently devoting about 40% of its budget to the war against Ukraine. To keep up the pace of recruitment, the Kremlin has moved away from mobilization to offering highly paid volunteers. According to reports, the recruiter who signs the first contract can receive a recruitment bonus and a monthly salary nearly three times the national average.
“Despite the lack of significant progress on the front, Putin wants to keep fighting. There is money for war, and there always will be,” Spanish daily EL PAIS quoted economist Inozemtsev as saying.
Trump may agree with him, but Putin has also clearly expressed “unwavering support for Tehran”, and congratulated Mojtaba Khamenei on his selection as Iran’s new supreme leader after his father was killed in the early hours of a US-Israeli bombing on 28 February.
Russia has regularly used Iranian-made unilateral attack drones to attack Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure. Iran later supplied the technology to Russia to begin its own mass production of deadly drones.
Iran’s comprehensive Use of relatively cheap drones The conflict has put pressure on the US military and Gulf allies, forcing them to use defense systems designed primarily to counter more advanced weapons.
India’s Russia paradox, a balancing act
This conflict has put India, the world’s third largest oil importer, in a precarious situation. With shipments through the Strait of Hormuz largely halted, New Delhi has been forced to rapidly diversify its energy sources. India’s Russian crude imports rose to 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in March, up 50% from February, ship-tracking data showed.
Before the recent sanctions and disruptions, India had imported 2.1 million bpd of Russian oil by mid-2025, but the figure had fallen to 1.1 million by January this year due to US sanctions against Russian companies.
Additionally, Trump had imposed a punitive 25% tariff on India last August – bringing total US duties on Indian products to 50%, which he later removed with the condition that India not buy oil from Russia. Trump offered as an alternative more oil from the US and Venezuela, whose resources the Americans claim to control after ousting President Nicolas Maduro. After Trump expanded his war strategy to Iran, New Delhi has had to increasingly move away from its dependence on the Persian Gulf. This is where Russia came back.
When America gave 30 days timePermissionPM Narendra Modi, who arrived in Delhi to buy from Moscow, faced even tougher questions from opposition leader Rahul Gandhi on “selling India’s sovereignty” to Trump.
And this crisis extends beyond crude oil. India is facing challenges regarding Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG). About 80-90% of India’s LPG imports typically transit through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving the country’s domestic LPG supply highly vulnerable. Reports indicate that prolonged disruption could lead to rising inflation, especially in states like Mizoram, Manipur and Punjab, where LPG has a high importance in the consumer price basket.
To reassure citizens and markets, India’s Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said the country’sNon-Hormuz Sourcing“Total crude imports have increased to almost 70%, up from 55% before the current conflict began.” He stressed that the government has taken steps to ensure that domestic supplies remain “fully protected” despite a global moment the likes of which “the world has never seen in history”.
While Russia is cashing in, analysts warn that the situation remains a double-edged sword. If the conflict prolongs, it could lead to a deep global recession, which would ultimately reduce overall demand for hydrocarbons and severely impact the Russian economy.
Geopolitical analyst Mark Champion wrote, “We are finding out in real time whether Trump, or the seven former Oval Office officials who conducted the cost-benefit analysis of going to war with Iran and decided against it, were right.”
