India’s climate policy has evolved significantly over the past decade as the nation attempts to balance its developmental priorities, with the urgency of climate action. The National Determined Contributions (NDCs), submitted under the Paris Agreement Framework, represent India’s commitments toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions, while ensuring sustainable development. India’s NDC 3.0 framework, expected as part of the next cycle of climate commitments beyond the 2030 horizon; can be understood as a blueprint that integrates climate ambition with equitable growth, energy transition, climate justice, and technological transformation. This approach reflects India’s broader philosophy that climate action must not come at the cost of development, especially for emerging economies of the global south that still face poverty, infrastructure gaps and energy access challenges.
The concept of NDCs originates from the Paris Agreement of 2015, which requires each country to periodically submit increasingly ambitious climate action plans. These plans typically include emission reduction targets, adaptation strategies and climate finance needs. India ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and committed to reducing the emissions intensity of its GDP, increasing non-fossil fuel energy capacity, and creating additional carbon sinks through enhancing its forest cover. These commitments formed the foundation of India’s climate strategy and demonstrated the country’s willingness to contribute to global climate goals, while maintaining its developmental trajectory.
India’s updated climate commitments over time have reflected increasing ambition. For instance, India enhanced its emissions intensity reduction target to 45% by 2030 from 2005 levels and strengthened its renewable energy capacity goals as part of its updated NDC submitted in 2022. These commitments were aligned with the long-term vision of achieving net-zero emissions by 2070, a target announced at COP26 at Glasgow by the Prime Minister as Panchamrit. This gradual strengthening of targets illustrates India’s strategy of progressive ambition, where climate commitments are scaled up in line with economic capacity, technological readiness and international cooperation.
India’s NDC 3.0 can, therefore, be seen as the next phase of this evolution, emphasising three major pillars: Climate ambition, equitable growth and global climate leadership. The first pillar, climate ambition, reflects India’s intention to accelerate its energy transition through renewable energy expansion, green hydrogen, electric mobility, and carbon markets. Recent policy discussions indicate that India may target around 60% of its electricity capacity from non-fossil fuel sources and deeper reductions in emissions intensity, as part of its future commitments. Such targets indicate India’s transition from incremental commitments to structural transformation of its energy systems.
The second pillar of NDC 3.0 is equitable growth. India has consistently emphasised the principle of climate justice, which recognises that developed countries bear historical responsibility for emissions and should therefore take the lead in climate mitigation and finance. India’s per capita emissions remain significantly lower than those of developed countries, which strengthens its argument that climate action must be accompanied by financial and technological support from advanced economies. Through NDC 3.0, India is expected to further emphasise that developing countries require carbon space to grow and industrialise and that climate policies must allow flexibility for economic expansion and poverty reduction.
Equity in India’s climate strategy also includes domestic considerations. The transition to a low-carbon economy must ensure a just transition for workers dependent on fossil fuel sectors such as coal mining and thermal power generation. India’s approach recognises that coal may continue to play a role in the medium term even as renewable energy expands, highlighting the importance of balancing environmental sustainability with economic stability. NDC 3.0 is therefore likely to include policies related to skill development, reskilling of workers and regional economic diversification to ensure that climate transition does not create social inequalities.
Another important dimension of India’s NDC 3.0 is the integration of adaptation with mitigation. While global discussions often focus on emission reductions, India has emphasised the importance of adaptation because of its vulnerability to climate impacts such as heatwaves, floods, glacial melting and coastal erosion. Climate-resilient agriculture, water conservation, disaster management systems and resilient infrastructure are expected to form an integral part of India’s next NDC framework. India has already highlighted adaptation investments in sectors such as agriculture, water resources and health as part of its earlier climate commitments.
Technology will play a central role in India’s NDC 3.0 strategy. The country is investing heavily in solar and wind energy, battery storage, smart grids and green hydrogen. India’s International Solar Alliance (ISA) initiative also reflects its intention to lead global renewable energy deployment, especially in the Global South. Future NDC commitments are likely to focus on scaling domestic manufacturing of clean technologies, under initiatives such as Make in India and Atmanirbhar Bharat, thereby linking climate policy with industrial policy.
Carbon markets are another area expected to gain prominence, under NDC 3.0. India is developing domestic carbon trading mechanisms to incentivise emission reductions in industry and energy sectors. Such market-based mechanisms can reduce the cost of mitigation and encourage private sector participation. By creating regulatory frameworks for carbon trading and climate disclosures, India aims to integrate climate considerations into mainstream economic decision-making.
Climate finance remains one of the most critical challenges for implementing India’s NDC ambitions. Estimates suggest that India may require trillions of dollars in investment to achieve its Net-zero target by 2070, highlighting the scale of the transformation required. NDC 3.0 is therefore likely to reiterate the need for international climate finance, concessional loans and technology transfer mechanisms. India has repeatedly emphasised that achieving global climate targets depends on whether developed countries fulfil their commitments to mobilise climate finance for developing economies.
India’s NDC 3.0 also reflects a shift toward lifestyle-based climate action. The concept of LiFE (Lifestyle for Environment), promoted by India, emphasises sustainable consumption patterns, waste reduction, and behavioural change. This approach recognises that climate change cannot be addressed through technology alone and requires societal transformation. Encouraging responsible consumption, circular economy practices and resource efficiency may become key components of India’s future climate commitments.
Another notable feature of India’s evolving NDC framework is the growing role of states, cities, and local governments. Climate action is increasingly being decentralised, with state governments preparing climate action plans and cities adopting sustainable mobility and waste management strategies. NDC 3.0 may further institutionalize this multi-level governance approach by encouraging state-level climate targets and performance monitoring systems.
India’s NDC 3.0 also has significant geopolitical implications. As one of the world’s largest economies and fastest growing energy markets, India’s climate choices will influence global emission trajectories. By positioning itself as a voice of the Global South, India seeks to bridge the divide between developed and developing countries in climate negotiations. India’s leadership in forums such as the G20 and BRICS also provides opportunities to shape global climate governance.
A comparative analysis of India and China’s emerging NDC 3.0 commitments highlights both convergence and divergence in their climate strategies as two of the world’s largest developing economies. China’s climate pathway is expected to focus more strongly on absolute emission reductions after its emissions peak before 2030, expansion of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption and large-scale renewable capacity expansion driven by its industrial base. In contrast, India’s NDC trajectory continues to emphasise emissions intensity reduction rather than absolute emission cuts, expansion of non-fossil electricity capacity and strengthening carbon sinks, reflecting its lower historical emissions and development needs. While China’s commitments are driven by its role as the world’s largest emitter and manufacturing hub, India’s commitments are framed around climate equity, per-capita emissions considerations and the need to maintain high economic growth to meet development goals. This distinction reinforces India’s strategic position that climate ambition must be aligned with developmental justice rather than purely numerical emission reduction targets.
At the same time, India’s NDC 3.0 approach can be viewed as comparatively more balanced in terms of integrating climate action with social inclusion. While China’s strategy largely focuses on industrial decarbonisation, manufacturing dominance in clean technologies and rapid electrification, India’s framework gives relatively greater emphasis to lifestyle changes, climate adaptation, decentralised renewable energy expansion and just transition policies. Furthermore, India’s emphasis on democratic climate governance, stakeholder consultations and federal participation through state climate action plans provides a more participatory governance model compared to China’s centralised implementation approach. From a Global South perspective, India’s NDC 3.0 may, therefore, serve as a more adaptable model for developing countries because it connects climate ambition with poverty reduction, resilience building and sustainable consumption rather than focusing predominantly on industrial restructuring. This comparison demonstrates that while China may lead in scale and speed of decarbonisation, India’s strength lies in designing a development-sensitive climate framework that attempts to reconcile growth, equity and environmental responsibility.
At the same time, India faces several challenges in implementing its climate commitments. Rapid urbanisation, rising energy demand, and industrial growth will continue to put pressure on emissions. Ensuring energy security while reducing fossil fuel dependence remains a complex policy challenge. Furthermore, the cost of clean technologies, grid integration issues and financing constraints could slow the pace of transition. NDC 3.0 must, therefore, address these structural challenges through long-term planning, regulatory reforms and international cooperation.
The private sector is expected to play a crucial role in achieving NDC 3.0 goals. Corporate climate disclosures, ESG and BRSR reporting, and sustainability standards are becoming increasingly important in India’s economic landscape. As global supply chains increasingly prioritize low-carbon production, Indian industries will need to align with climate standards to remain competitive. NDC 3.0 could therefore accelerate regulatory frameworks that encourage corporate decarbonisation and sustainable finance.
India’s agriculture sector also holds significant importance in the NDC framework. Climate-smart agriculture practices, such as precision irrigation, drought-resistant crops, and regenerative farming, can help reduce emissions while improving farmer resilience. Given that agriculture supports a large share of India’s population, integrating sustainability with farmer welfare will remain a central policy priority.
Another key area likely to be emphasised in NDC 3.0 is nature-based solutions (NBS). India has already committed to creating additional carbon sinks through enhancing forest and tree cover. Future strategies may include mangrove restoration, biodiversity conservation and landscape restoration programs. These initiatives not only contribute to mitigation, but also enhance ecosystem resilience and rural livelihoods.
Artificial Intelligence, in addition to the use of the Digital Public Infrastructure is also expected to support India’s climate ambitions; while, remote sensing and climate data platforms can improve emission monitoring, disaster forecasting and resource management. The integration of digital technologies into climate governance may enhance transparency, accountability and policy effectiveness.
Ultimately, India’s NDC 3.0 represents more than just a climate commitment; it represents a development model that seeks to harmonise economic growth with environmental sustainability. By combining renewable energy expansion, green industrialisation, climate finance mobilisation and social inclusion, India is attempting to create a pathway that other developing countries can emulate. The emphasis on equity, climate justice and sustainable lifestyles provides a distinctive framework that differentiates India’s climate approach from purely mitigation-focused strategies.
India’s NDC 3.0 can be seen as a comprehensive blueprint for aligning climate ambition with equitable growth; reflecting India’s belief that climate action and development are not mutually exclusive, but can be mutually reinforcing, if supported by appropriate policies, technologies and financial mechanisms. As India moves toward its net-zero target of 2070, the success of NDC 3.0 will depend on effective implementation, international cooperation and sustained political commitment. If executed effectively, India’s approach could demonstrate how emerging economies, especially in the global south, can pursue climate leadership while ensuring inclusive and sustainable development for their populations.
This article is authored by Srikanta K Panigrahi, director general and distinguished research fellow, Indian Institute Of Sustainable Development (IISD), New Delhi.
