New Delhi: Does Aam Aadmi Party not want this? Congress win in Kerala assembly elections?India Bloc’s inability to form a unified front ahead of Kerala Assembly elections brilliantly exposed after Arvind KejrivalThe Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) released its sequential list of candidates, signaling its intention to fight a full-scale battle on all 140 seats in Kerala.The southern state, recently renamed Keralam in honor of its cultural and linguistic heritage, now stands as the latest battleground where AAP’s ambitions are at loggerheads with the Congress.Kerala’s electoral rhythms have long resisted continuity, with voters refusing to give a second consecutive term to most incumbents. This pattern puts the main opposition Congress in a favorable position in the race for power in Thiruvananthapuram.Nevertheless, your strong entry has brought a new twist. Is Kejriwal’s party merely expanding itself, or complicating Congress’s path to power? With limited organizational depth in the Malayalam-speaking state, AAP may not hold significant relevance, but with Arvind Kejriwal and his team emerging from the shadow of the Delhi liquor case, their presence may still, even if marginally, change the political equation in Kerala.The ruling Left party, which is also part of the broader opposition, remains the primary rival of the Congress, while BJP Path as the distant third. In this triangular contest, the AAP might not be able to cause much damage to the Left or the BJP, but it could cut into the Congress’s vote share enough to change the final verdict and impact the margins where elections are often decided.Is Delhi’s revenge being served in Kerala?2025 started with the shocking defeat of Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi. Earlier, reluctant allies, AAP and Congress had decided to fight the elections separately while the former had nothing to lose and launched an aggressive campaign against the ruling Arvind Kejriwal-led government.The grand old party also got a chance as the Kejriwal cabinet came under suspicion in the Delhi liquor policy matter, and agencies like CBI and ED were investigating the matter. Several senior AAP leaders, including Kejriwal and his deputy Manish Sisodia, faced legal trouble, leading to a period when the government functioned under the chief ministership of party ally and loyal Atishi.While AAP ultimately lost to the BJP, the Congress also played an indirectly important role in preventing its ally Bharatiya Janata Party from winning for the fourth consecutive time.The “vote-cutting” factor proved important in several constituencies, including New Delhi, where Sandeep Dikshit, son of former chief minister Sheila Dikshit, was fielded against Kejriwal. Although he finished third, the votes he received contributed to Kejriwal’s defeat and helped BJP’s Parvesh Verma emerge as a “giant killer”.Hypothetically, if those votes had gone to Kejriwal, the outcome could have been different. AAP’s seats dropped from 62 to 22, while Congress once again failed to open its account.Despite years of political bitterness, the herculean efforts that brought AAP and Congress into an arranged marriage to counter the BJP’s strong might in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections have once again been exposed in the 2025 assembly elections, reflecting a familiar pattern of rivalry.AAP, which emerged from the India Against Corruption movement led by Anna Hazare, directly challenged the Sheila Dikshit-led government and established a dominant hold on Delhi, reducing the Congress from a ruling force to total insignificance.The Congress, which has been under the strong leadership of Sheila Dikshit for 15 years, has failed to win a single seat in the last two assembly elections (2020 and 2025), and has also not won any seats in three consecutive Lok Sabha elections (2014, 2019 and 2024).Just as the Congress damaged AAP’s prospects in the Delhi Assembly, the AAP may now hurt the Congress’s prospects in states like Kerala as it seeks to maintain its relevance within the national opposition.alliance for confrontationAllies in the Lok Sabha became rivals in the Assembly, the fight between estranged allies was anything but polite.At a rally, Arvind Kejriwal didn’t hold back: “The problem with the Congress is its sense of entitlement. They think they have the divine right to lead the opposition because of their past, even if their presence on the ground is zero. He is not fighting the BJP; They are fighting with regional parties who actually defeat the BJP. In Delhi, Congress is nothing but a ‘vote-cutter’ designed to help BJP.The Congress, in turn, took advantage of the troubles surrounding the Delhi excise policy issue and attacked AAP where it suffered the most.Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra led rallies across Delhi and slammed Kejriwal and other AAP leaders as “corrupt”. At one such rally, Rahul Gandhi remarked: “Kejriwal ji keeps telling lies. Just as Narendra Modi lies, Kejriwal also lies. There is not much difference between them. But I will tell you one thing – Kejriwal is probably more clever and sophisticated than the Prime Minister in misleading people.A few weeks later, when a Delhi court acquitted Kejriwal and his associates in the liquor policy case, the Congress alleged that it was part of the BJP’s larger strategy of a “Congress-free India”.Congress spokesperson Pawan Khera attacked the BJP, calling it an “icchhadhari naag” (shape-shifting snake) and accused it of using central agencies as political tools.Kejriwal hit back sharply, questioning Congress’s claims and targeting its leadership, saying, “Kejriwal went to jail. Did Robert Vadra go to jail? Sanjay Singh went to jail. Did Rahul Gandhi go to jail? Did Sonia Gandhi go to jail? What is Congress saying? Doesn’t it have any shame?”To reduce Congress’ footprint?Congress, the oldest party with roots in the independence movement, has been struggling with insecurity for more than a decade.Apart from Delhi, it has steadily lost ground in many states, helping the BJP increase its dominance in national politics. This decline has also opened the door for other players to challenge his position within the opposition.Among states like West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Kerala where elections are due, Kerala appears to be the one where the Congress still has a real chance of returning to power by ousting the Left. This makes it an important battlefield.In such a scenario, AAP’s entry could be seen as an attempt to further damage the Congress, leading to a situation where it would struggle for relevance and also limit the growth of the Congress.Kejriwal’s Kerala effort, with candidates in different constituencies, could help establish AAP as a more serious national player. The state offers a relatively low-risk opportunity, allowing the AAP to contest the elections without huge stakes while keeping both the BJP and Congress in control.Repeating Gujarat in Kerala?From Delhi and Punjab, Arvind Kejriwal has wielded a strong political hold, successfully running a full-fledged government in Punjab under the leadership of party colleague Bhagwant Mann, while also ruling the Union Territory of Delhi for over a decade with an imposing presence in the Assembly.However, the journey of Aam Aadmi Party has not been limited to Delhi only. Its steady, often indirect expansion has established Kejriwal as an emerging alternative in national politics. He has also made inroads in Gujarat, which has been considered Narendra Modi’s stronghold for a long time.In its debut in Gujarat, AAP won more than 13 percent of the votes, making a huge impact on the Congress. In the 2017 assembly elections, Congress had secured 42.2 percent votes, giving a tough competition to BJP after Modi entered national politics. However, AAP’s entry in 2022 upset that balance, reducing Congress’s vote share to 27.7 per cent.While AAP made an impressive start with around 13 per cent of the votes, the BJP registered only a marginal increase – from around 50 per cent to 53 per cent.A similar pattern may emerge in Kerala, where AAP may not emerge as a major force but may influence the outcome by cutting into the Congress’ vote share, potentially benefiting the incumbent Left – as happened in Gujarat.To expand the scope of AAP?Since its birth from the Anna movement in 2013, AAP has been making continuous efforts to expand its footprint across India. So why not Kerala?For Arvind Kejriwal, ambition was never limited to Delhi. After ending Sheila Dikshit’s long-standing dominance, she quickly burst onto the national stage, taking on Narendra Modi in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The contest in Varanasi may have ended in defeat, but it marked Kejriwal’s arrival as a major challenge.He secured more than 20 percent of the vote, enough to push the Congress to third place in Varanasi. Its candidate Ajay Rai could get only about 7 percent votes.Therefore, the foray into Kerala is less external and more a continuation of that journey, an attempt to test the party’s reach in the far south.Beyond its strongholds in Delhi and Punjab, AAP has steadily ventured into new political arenas.In Gujarat, it emerged as a significant player with over 13 per cent of the vote, largely at the expense of the Congress. In Goa, it garnered about 7 percent and won two seats, once again cutting into the Congress base.The party has also made its presence felt in Jammu and Kashmir, where Mehraj Malik won from Doda.New interest in AAP has arisen from the northernmost area of Jammu and Kashmir to the southern tip of Kerala.Kerala of Rahul, Priyanka and TharoorKejriwal’s entry into Kerala holds symbolic significance, especially for the Congress, for which the state has become an important political base in recent years. In moments of crisis, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, both descendants of the Gandhi family, turned to Kerala.In 2019, when Rahul Gandhi lost his own Amethi seat, it was Wayanad that gave him a landslide victory. He returned to Wayanad again in 2024 and won comfortably, although he ultimately decided to retain Rae Bareli.“I was a stranger to you and yet you believed in me. You embraced me with unbridled love and affection. It doesn’t matter which political formation you support, it doesn’t matter which community you belong to or which religion you believe in or which language you speak,” Rahul said.He said, “I am saddened, but I am consoled because my sister Priyanka will be there to represent you. I am confident that she will do an excellent job of being your MP if you decide to give her a chance. My central commitment to you and the people of Rae Bareli is that we will fight and defeat the hatred and violence being spread in the country.”Moving away from Wayanad, Rahul Gandhi thanked voters and paved the way for Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s electoral debut from the same constituency. He won a landslide victory in the by-elections, further strengthening the family’s ties with the state.After her win, Priyanka said, “I thank the people of Wayanad for giving me the honor of representing them. It’s a testament to the hard work my brother put in there, their love for them and the trust they had in me.” I think it’s a great honor and I will honor it completely.”Apart from the Gandhi family, Kerala is also home to one of the most prominent national faces of the Congress, three-time MP from Thiruvananthapuram Shashi Tharoor.In this backdrop, Kejriwal’s thrust on Kerala is not just another electoral experiment, it is a move that could destabilize established equations and complicate the political calculus for players in the state.Kejriwal vs Rahul?Following the formation of the India Bloc, the BJP-led NDA retained power at the Centre, and Rahul Gandhi became the leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha.When Rahul rose to that position, questions remained over his leadership ambitions. Within the opposition faction, differences began to emerge and AAP’s stance often appeared less in line with it.AAP has, at various points, attempted to project Kejriwal as a potential national challenger to Narendra Modi, while sidelining Rahul Gandhi’s prospects.With repeated electoral setbacks to the aggressive expansion of the Congress and AAP, the contest within the opposition sector may now be not just against the BJP, but also between its key players.
