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In Karnataka, Congress had given priority to the number of MLAs. However, in Kerala it chose differently.
The focus of this afternoon’s CLP meeting will be on a “unity formula” that satisfies all factions. Whether the party opts for a clear single leader or a structured power-sharing arrangement, the priority is to hold the swearing-in ceremony before the weekend. File photo/PTI
Nearly 10 days after the Congress-led UDF’s victory in Kerala, the party looked dangerously close to repeating a familiar script. The numerical strength within the legislature party appeared to be in favor of KC Venugopal. But on Thursday the Congress high command… VD Satheesan elected Chief MinisterMany within the party see the decision as a conscious effort to avoid the kind of power struggle that has dogged the Congress government in Karnataka since 2023.
According to sources, while the deliberations were going on, Congress MP Sonia Gandhi was also sought for advice and she suggested that the party should go with someone who would be able to keep the party united in the state. Soon after, the decision became clear: Satheesan was selected as the party’s Kerala CM.
Watch live updates on Kerala Chief Minister’s announcement here
However, the comparison with Karnataka is difficult to ignore. In both states, the Congress faced the same question after the victory: should the party reward the leader who rebuilt the organization and led the campaign, or go with the candidate who enjoyed strong support among MLAs?
The Congress in Kerala seems to have decided that there may be a political price to be paid for repeating the Karnataka formula.
The Karnataka template that kept troubling Congress
After the landslide victory of Congress in Karnataka in 2023, the biggest fight was not against BJP but within the party itself.
DK Shivakumar is credited with reviving the Congress organization in Karnataka after years of failures. As state Congress chief, he played a central role in organizing workers, raising funds, building alliances and leading the campaign machinery. Many Congress workers believed that he had achieved the post of Chief Minister through years of political grassroots hard work.
But when the time came to choose the CM, the Congress high command chose Siddaramaiah.
The main reason was legislative support. A large section of MLAs supported Siddaramaiah, who was seen as the party’s biggest mass leader in the state. Shivakumar eventually accepted the role of Deputy Chief Minister after lengthy negotiations, but reports of the “rotational chief minister system” and ongoing rivalries never completely disappeared.
Even after three years, speculations of leadership change continue to surface from time to time in Karnataka politics, with the Congress leadership repeatedly denying there is internal tension.
That experience appears to have influenced how the Congress approached Kerala.
How did VD Satheesan become the face of Congress’s Kerala revival?
When Congress faced defeat in the 2021 Kerala Assembly elections, the party leadership handed over the role of Leader of Opposition to VD Satheesan.
At the time, this choice itself was seen as a generational change. Satheesan introduced a more aggressive opposition style than the previous Congress leadership in Kerala. He often fought directly with the CPI(M) government over corruption allegations, governance issues, law-and-order disputes and financial management.
Over the next few years, Satheesan increasingly emerged as the public face of the UDF opposition campaign.
Congress workers across Kerala often viewed him as a leader who brought energy back to the party’s state unit after years of factional fatigue. Even during the election campaign, Satheesan remained at the forefront of rallies, media outreach and political messaging.
By the time the UDF returned to power, many within the Congress believed that Satheesan had become inseparable from the party’s comeback story.
Still, many MLAs reportedly supported KC Venugopal
Despite Satheesan’s public popularity, the internal equations of the party were more complex.
Multiple reports have revealed that around 45 Congress MLAs were leaning towards KC Venugopal for the chief minister’s post. Venugopal, currently one of the most powerful leaders in the Congress organization at the national level, has tremendous influence within the party structure and close access to the central leadership.
This created a Karnataka-like dilemma for the Congress high command.
Should the party give priority to legislative arithmetic within the Congress Legislature Party? Or should it reward the leader who had become the public face of the campaign and a symbol of the party’s revival?
In Karnataka, Congress had given priority to the number of MLAs. However, in Kerala it chose differently.
Why did public perception become important in Kerala?
A major reason seems to be public sentiment. As uncertainty grew over the choice of CM, signs of uneasiness began to emerge within a section of the Congress cadre. Posters reportedly appeared in parts of Kerala warning the leadership against sidelining Satheesan despite his role in the UDF victory.
The concern within the party was that if the Congress ignored the leader most associated with the Vijay campaign, it could demoralize workers and create a perception that grassroots political efforts mattered less than organizational lobbying in Delhi.
Unlike Karnataka, where Siddaramaiah remained an undisputed mass leader with a large independent support base, the political mood in Kerala appeared to be more strongly linked to the idea of Satheesan as the architect of the UDF resurgence. This difference probably mattered to the Congress leadership.
Another important factor was the stance taken by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), the most important ally of the Congress in Kerala.
Reports indicate that senior IUML leaders privately told the Congress leadership that Satheesan enjoyed wide public acceptance as chief minister. The League’s support is of vital importance as coalition management is central to Kerala politics.
The Congress leadership was aware that any perception of ignoring the popular face of the campaign could create tension not only within the Congress, but also within the broader UDF alliance.
Kerala’s coalition dynamics are often more sensitive to public messaging and consensus-building than simple internal legislative arithmetic.
Lesson learned from Karnataka?
Kerala’s decision shows that Congress has learned an important lesson from Karnataka.
In Karnataka, the party comfortably formed the government, but the unresolved Siddaramaiah-Shivakumar rivalry continues to cast a shadow over governance and party unity. Leadership speculation has repeatedly distracted from the government’s political message.
The Congress leadership probably wanted to avoid starting a new government in Kerala under similar circumstances.
By choosing Satheesan despite reports of strong MLA support for Venugopal, the party signaled that electoral leadership and grassroots political work will play an important role in leadership decisions.
It was also a message to party workers at the national level: a leader who builds momentum on the ground will not necessarily be sidelined after victory.
Will Kerala elections change Congress’ future outlook?
The Kerala episode may ultimately become much more than a decision of the state leadership. For the Congress Party, which is trying to reinvent itself across India, the choice between organizational strength and grassroots legitimacy is becoming increasingly important. Kerala presented a test case where the leadership chose political perception over internal legislative arithmetic.
This does not mean that the factional tension within the Kerala Congress is over. Venugopal remains one of the most influential national leaders of the party and is expected to continue to play a prominent role in both the government and the organisation. Meanwhile, sources say that party MLA Ramesh Chennithala, who was vying for the CM post, is upset and will not attend the Congress Legislature Party meeting in Kerala.
But politically, the Congress has concluded that there would be more risk in denying Satheesan the chief ministerial post after a UDF comeback victory.
Whether this will help Kerala avoid Karnataka-style instability will only become clear in the years to come. But for now, it seems the Congress has decided that rewarding the campaign face is a safer political option than repeating the experiment that is troubling it in Karnataka.
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