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Perhaps the biggest concern in BJP circles is that the leadership change allows the Congress to make itself look politically fresh.
Karnataka’s new CM DK Shivakumar
When? DK Shivakumar finally took oath As the Chief Minister of Karnataka on Wednesday, it ended a long and bitter succession battle within the Congress. But while the event was a moment of celebration for the ruling party, it has also triggered a new phase of introspection within the BJP.
According to BJP leaders quoted by The Indian Express, shivkumarHis promotion has complicated the party’s electoral calculations ahead of the 2028 assembly elections. The concern is not just that Congress has changed its Chief Minister. This is happening because the party has perhaps managed to turn what was once seen as its biggest weakness into a political advantage.
For years, the BJP had counted on three factors working in its favor in the state: anti-incumbency against the Congress government, the possibility of a damaging power struggle between Siddaramaiah and Siddaramaiah. shivkumarand an opportunity to make further gains in the Vokkaliga-dominated Old Mysore region through an alliance with the JD(S).
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Now, party leaders believe each of those assumptions may need to be revisited.
Congress has averted a potential political crisis
One of the BJP’s biggest hopes was that the unresolved power-sharing arrangement between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar would eventually weaken the Congress government.
The issue had been simmering ever since the Congress came to power in 2023, with repeated speculations over whether Siddaramaiah would honor an alleged rotational chief ministerial formula.
According to The Indian Express, BJP leaders believed that prolonged uncertainty would lead to factionalism and ultimately harm governance. Instead, the Congress high command managed to oversee a relatively smooth transfer of power.
There were no major resignations, no outright rebellion and no public split.
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More importantly, the Congress has ensured that Siddaramaiah’s political stature remains intact even after leaving office. The former chief minister has been accommodated in the national structure of the party, while many of his loyalists retain influence in the government and organisation. He was also offered Rajya Sabha membership, which he declined and has now been appointed to the Congress Working Committee.
For the BJP, this means a potential Congress crisis has been averted, at least for now.
Congress pressed the reset button
Perhaps the biggest concern in BJP circles is that the leadership change allows the Congress to look politically fresh.
BJP leaders quoted by Times of India believe the change has given the grand old party a chance to rehabilitate the government’s image in the middle of its tenure.
Instead of contesting the next election as a government that has been in power for five years, the Congress can now project the Shivakumar administration as a new phase with new energy and priorities. This matters because anti-incumbency has historically been one of the most powerful forces in Karnataka politics. The state has often seen governments being voted out of power after a single term.
By changing chief ministers in the middle of their tenure, the Congress would have mitigated to some extent the fatigue and resentment that naturally accumulates against the current administration.
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It remains to be seen whether voters accept that statement, but BJP leaders quoted by The Indian Express admit that the political equation has changed.
Battle for Old Mysore
Leadership change is not just about personality, but also about caste mathematics.
Shivakumar is one of the most influential Vokkaliga leaders of Karnataka. His elevation to the top post has given the Congress a powerful face in a region where the party, BJP and JD(S) are engaged in an intense triangular contest.
This is not good news for the BJP, which is now worried about influence in the old Mysuru region, where the party has been trying to expand its footprint for years.
The BJP’s alliance with the JD(S) was partly formed to strengthen its appeal among Vokkaliga voters and challenge the Congress in southern Karnataka. Shivakumar’s promotion threatens to complicate that strategy.
Congress leaders believe that having a Vokkaliga chief minister could help consolidate support among sections of the community that have moved towards the BJP-JD(S) alliance in recent years. If this happens, it may affect dozens of assembly constituencies.
BJP is facing the question of its leadership
Congress may have resolved its succession battle, but BJP still faces the question of who will lead the party in the next assembly elections.
According to The Indian Express, BJP leaders privately admit that Shivakumar’s promotion has focused attention on their own leadership structure.
The party has many experienced leaders, including former chief minister Basavaraj Bommai, state president BY Vijayendra and leader of opposition R Ashok. Yet it has not presented any clear chief ministerial face for 2028.
Shivakumar’s rise therefore presents a paradox: the Congress now has a leader who combines organizational authority with governmental power, while the BJP continues to balance multiple centers of influence.
The challenge for the opposition will be to craft a coherent counter-narrative before the next election cycle.
DKS brings more than electoral appeal
Another reason why the BJP is taking Shivkumar’s promotion seriously is his reputation within the Congress.
Unlike many chief ministers who emerged primarily as mass leaders, Shivakumar has spent years building a reputation as an organizational strategist, trouble-shooter and political manager.
He played a central role in the Congress’ victory in the 2023 assembly elections and has often been entrusted with politically sensitive tasks by the party leadership. His supporters often point out that he combines grassroots mobilization skills with the ability to manage the party machinery.
This means that the BJP is not just working with the new Chief Minister; It is working with one of the most effective political operators of Congress.
Congress has seized the story
Over the past three years, the political discussion in Karnataka revolved around one question: When will the Shivakumar-Siddaramaiah issue erupt?
The Congress leadership has now tried to reverse that story. Instead of a succession dispute, the party wants voters to see a successful leadership transition. And instead of a government nearing the end of its term, it wants to introduce a new administration with a new chief minister.
Opportunity for BJP?
However, the BJP is not without ammunition.
Party leaders argue that the change does not erase the challenges facing the Congress government. Inflation, infrastructure concerns, fiscal pressures arising from welfare guarantees, water scarcity and urban governance issues are likely to remain the central political issues over the next two years.
Shivkumar also has his own political burden. The BJP is expected to continue to target him over corruption allegations made over the years, although he has consistently denied any wrongdoing.
Most importantly, the standards on which Shivakumar will now be evaluated are very different. As Deputy Chief Minister and Karnataka Congress President, he could often point to competing power centers within the government. As Chief Minister, the responsibility of governance ultimately rests with him.
According to BJP leaders quoted by The Indian Express, the concern is not just that Congress has changed the Chief Minister. It may be that the party has simultaneously neutralized a potential succession crisis, refreshed its government midway through its tenure, strengthened its position among Vokkaliga voters and elevated one of its strongest organizers to the top office in the state.
This means that the BJP now finds itself facing a party that believes it has been politically rejuvenated. And this, even more than the change in chief minister, makes the promotion of DK Shivakumar significant for the opposition.
About the author
Apoorva Mishra is a News Editor at News18.com with over nine years of experience. She is a graduate of Lady Shri Ram College, Delhi University and holds a PG Diploma from the Asian College of Journalism…read more
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