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Ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the NDA may find itself closer than ever to the parliamentary strength it enjoyed during its peak years.
Before the TMC rebellion, the NDA’s effective strength in the Lok Sabha was around 342 MPs. (file photo)
Despite returning to power nearly two years after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-led NDA faced a significant parliamentary limitation: it lacked the numbers needed to enact major constitutional changes without the support of outside parties. That arithmetic is now changing rapidly.
The reported rebellion of 20 Trinamool Congress MPs, the formal break of the Congress-DMK alliance and the switch of seven AAP Rajya Sabha MPs to the NDA have together created a political situation that would have seemed impossible a few months ago.
The question now is whether the ruling coalition is slowly moving toward the dominant parliamentary position that allows governments to make more major structural changes.
Impact of TMC split
At least 20 of TMC’s 28 Lok Sabha MPs have reportedly written a letter to Speaker Om Birla expressing their willingness to support the NDA. The rebel group claims it has crossed the two-thirds threshold required under the anti-defection law to be recognized as a separate faction.
Under the Tenth Schedule, a division supported by at least two-thirds of the legislative party can avoid immediate disqualification proceedings. For TMC’s 28-member Lok Sabha party, the magic figure is 19. The rebels claim the support of 20 MPs, which puts them above that threshold. If the Speaker ultimately recognizes such a broken formation, its ramifications will spread far beyond Bengal politics.
TMC has been one of the largest opposition parties in Parliament and one of the most vocal anti-BJP forces. A faction of 20 MPs moving into the NDA camp or even providing stable external support would represent one of the biggest parliamentary changes of the Modi era.
mathematics of parliament
There are currently 543 elected members in the Lok Sabha. A simple majority is sufficient for ordinary legislation. However, for a constitutional amendment bill under Article 368, the government requires the support of a majority of the total membership of the House as well as at least two-thirds of the members present and voting.
In practical political calculations, parties often use the benchmark of around 362 MPs – two-thirds of the strength of the entire House – as an indicator of whether a government can comfortably pursue constitutional changes without relying on unexpected external support.
First step: TMC rebellion
The biggest immediate factor is the rebellion within the Trinamool Congress.
Reports indicate that around 20 of TMC’s 28 Lok Sabha MPs have written to the Speaker expressing their willingness to support the NDA.
If those 20 MPs formally extend their support to the government, the NDA’s strength increases from 293 to 313.
The alliance will still be 47 seats short of the two-thirds mark, but the distance will reduce considerably.
This is why the developments in West Bengal are being monitored so closely in New Delhi.
Its implications extend far beyond state politics.
Step two: What if DMK increases issue-based support?
The second major change is DMK.
The opposition scenario has changed dramatically with the separation of DMK from Congress.
The party has 22 MPs in the Lok Sabha. At present there is no indication that DMK is considering joining the NDA. However, parliamentary politics often works through issue-based alignments rather than formal coalitions.
If the DMK decides to support the government on select legislation, especially constitutional or institutional reforms, the other 22 votes could effectively be available.
This will make the total number 313 + 22 = 335
At that time, the NDA will be just 25 votes away from the 360 ​​benchmark.
Step Three: The Uddhav Sena Factor
Another set of figures that is being closely monitored is that of the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT). The party currently has nine Lok Sabha MPs.
If the split happens and two-thirds of the MPs support the NDA, the government could potentially garner the support of six additional MPs.
This will make the total number 335 + 6 = 341
Then this difference will reduce to only 19 MPs.
What did the April Constitution vote reveal?
An important clue about the government’s future prospects came during the voting on the Constitution Amendment Bill in April. The original strength of the NDA in Parliament was less than the number of votes it actually received.
During that voting, the government managed to get support from 298 MPs, indicating that it was already receiving support from some MPs outside its formal coalition.
This means that the NDA effectively attracted at least five additional votes over its declared strength.
Applying the same trend to the current calculation produces a new figure: 341 + 5 = 348.
At that stage, the government will be just 12 votes short of the 360 ​​benchmark. In parliamentary terms, this is a remarkably small difference.
How can small parties become decisive?
Once the deficit is limited to about a dozen MPs, the role of smaller parties, independents and cross-voting becomes quite important.
Many regional parties have historically adopted issue-based stances rather than maintaining rigid coalition commitments.
Even limited support from smaller structures could potentially bridge the remaining gap.
This explains why the BJP has focused on reaching out beyond its formal alliance partners.
Strategy is no longer about finding one big ally. It’s about pooling support from many small sources.
Rajya Sabha: Second part of the story
Lok Sabha is only a part of the equation.
Historically, many governments have struggled in the Rajya Sabha even after getting a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha. But here also the figures are going in favor of NDA.
The biggest recent development was the move of seven AAP Rajya Sabha MPs to the ruling party. Following that development, the NDA’s support base in the Upper House reportedly increased to around 145 MPs. The two-thirds figure in the current Rajya Sabha is approximately 163 members, leaving the NDA 17 members short.
This explains why regional parties have suddenly become so important. Each additional group of MPs reduces the NDA’s dependence on the fragmented opposition.
The developments inside TMC may be important here also. Trinamool Congress had 13 Rajya Sabha MPs. One of them, Sukhendu Shekhar Roy, has already resigned. There is speculation that he may re-enter the Upper House through the BJP-backed route.
If additional Trinamool MPs also follow the same path, then NDA’s strength in Rajya Sabha may further increase.
DMK also has a significant presence in the Upper House. The party currently has eight Rajya Sabha seats.
Like the Lok Sabha, issue-based support from these MPs could prove crucial during key votes. BJP does not need a formal alliance with DMK.
Even conditional support on the selected law can change the arithmetic.
This is one reason why the breakdown of the Congress-DMK relationship has attracted so much attention in Delhi.
The biggest problem for Congress
The bigger issue for the Congress is that the India Bloc was designed around three major regional pillars outside the party – the DMK in Tamil Nadu, the TMC in West Bengal, and the AAP in Delhi and Punjab.
Today all three pillars have weakened or moved away from the original coalition structure. This has made the Congress more dependent on its numbers rather than a coordinated opposition alliance.
With the BJP’s parliamentary dominance looking weak two years out from the 2024 elections, a series of opposition breakdowns could give the NDA something it didn’t have on election day: a realistic path toward the numbers needed for transformative legislation.
About the author
Pragati is news editor at news18.com. After heading the Business and Viral sections, Pragati now conceptualises, writes and edits long-form features and articles on national and global affairs. She makes sure…read more
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