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The upcoming MLC elections in Karnataka are a litmus test for Chief Minister DK Shivakumar, who took charge as the state CM a fortnight ago.
Karnataka Congress held a CLP meeting on June 16 at a resort in Bengaluru. (Image: X/@Gopi_Congress)
The upcoming MLC elections in Karnataka are a litmus test for Chief Minister DK Shivakumar, who took charge as the state CM a fortnight ago.
While the usual resort politics is being resorted to, it is important to understand why this is a major test of Shivakumar’s organizational skills and control over the party, as he wants to ensure that the Congress flock stays together at the private resort and votes in the manner prescribed by the party.
Sources say news18 Many in the Congress see this as the first major political and organizational test for Shivakumar as chief minister, despite the fact that it is a straight fight and also a battle of prestige.
The council elections have become a prestige battle between Shivakumar and Union minister HD Kumaraswamy, whose political rivalry has often spilled beyond the political arena and into the streets.
For the Congress leadership, this means much more than the MLC election numbers. It is about demonstrating control, discipline and political management.
And party insiders say this is the first real test for Shivakumar on whether the organizational skills that made him indispensable to the Congress can now deliver results from the chief minister’s chair.
The question is simple: can DK Shivakumar, whose reputation is built on his organizational skills and election management abilities, deliver the numbers and keep the herd united?
Sources say the CLP meeting largely focused on vote management, allocation of first-preference votes, management of second-preference votes and efforts to prevent any cross-voting.
The message from the state leadership and DKS is clear – every vote counts in the tight contest for the last seat, and there will be no tolerance for cross-voting.
There is another reason for the importance of the meeting.
Sources say news18 The pending cabinet expansion has been effectively put on hold as the leadership did not want to complicate the council elections by launching new lobbying for ministerial posts. Many candidates are waiting to get a berth in the cabinet, but the immediate focus of the leadership is on ensuring smooth results in the MLC elections.
Insiders say a successful result in the council elections will significantly strengthen Shivakumar’s hand in future discussions on cabinet expansion and allocation of portfolios.
What happened in the CLP meeting? Sources told News18 this
Sources said Shivakumar alleged during the CLP meeting that the JD(S) had contacted Congress MLAs in an attempt to influence them and instigate cross-voting. news18.
According to sources, Shivakumar told Congress MLAs during the meeting, “Don’t become victims of poaching. Stay united and vote.”
Shivakumar is understood to have told the meeting that several Congress MLAs had received calls from JD(S). He also specifically mentioned that Molakalmuru MLA NY Gopalakrishna had received such a call.
According to sources, Shivakumar told the MLAs, “All MLAs have been requested to remain united and vote only in favor of Congress candidates.”
He said though many members had received calls from JD(S), it was time for Congress MLAs to stand together and vote unitedly.
Shivakumar also described his relationship with Siddaramaiah as an example of unity within the Congress. He told the MLAs that the way he and Siddaramaiah remained united should become an example for all party members.
According to sources, Shivakumar said the transfer of power between Siddaramaiah and him demonstrated unity and teamwork within the Congress leadership.
He also said in the meeting that Congress MLAs should remain united as a solid group, despite attempts by the opposition to provoke or divide them.
Congress MLAs are also being trained to vote under the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system.
It is learned that the Congress leadership has prepared an elaborate vote-allocation plan. Sources say that four Congress candidates are expected to get 28 votes each, while KPCC working president BK Hariprasad is expected to get 29 votes.
The aim of the training sessions is to ensure that every MLA understands the voting process and follows the party strategy without deviation.
Congress is confident of winning four seats, while the BJP-JDS alliance is expected to comfortably get two seats. The real fight is for the seventh seat.
Congress has fielded the fifth candidate, while the BJP-JDS alliance has fielded the third candidate. This is where the contest becomes politically important.
Sources say the Congress leadership is particularly focused on ensuring that the second preference votes do not favor the JDS-backed candidate. While the party is publicly expressing confidence, there are concerns about the possibility of cross-voting within a section of the leadership.
Sources say that this is where Shivakumar’s organizational abilities will face the biggest test. The challenge is not just to secure the required numbers, but also to ensure that the herd stays together and votes exactly as instructed.
Biennial elections for seven seats of Karnataka Legislative Council from the quota of MLAs will be held on June 18.
With eight candidates in the fray for seven seats, the election is expected to be closely contested, making vote management and cross-voting important factors.
Under the single transferable vote system, each candidate requires approximately 28–29 first-preference votes, depending on the final number of valid votes cast. With 134 MLAs, the Congress has the numbers to comfortably secure four seats and is expected to have additional votes that could influence the outcome of the contest for the additional seat.
Congress is also keeping a close eye on its arithmetic. Votes are being cast by secret ballot.
After the demise of minister and MLA D. Sudhakar, the party’s strength has come down to 134. Congress MLA Vinay Kulkarni is also currently in jail, adding another layer of complexity to the calculations.
Independent MLAs Latha Mallikarjuna and Darshan Puttannaiah are expected to support the Congress.
Interestingly, former minister and BJP MLA G. Janardhana Reddy was among the first leaders to publicly say that DK Shivakumar would become the Chief Minister, even before the Congress leadership had formally discussed and announced the leadership change.
Meanwhile, according to inside sources, expelled BJP leader Basanagouda Patil Yatnal is expected to vote with the JDS.
Sources reveal that the Congress leadership is also expected to assess the situation of each MLA and examine the possible voting patterns. Particular attention is likely to be given to MLAs who have taken independent positions in the past, including former minister KN Rajanna, who was dropped from the state cabinet.
BJP with 63 MLAs is expected to comfortably get two seats. The fight for the remaining seat is likely to be between the fifth candidate of the Congress and the additional candidate of the BJP-JDS alliance.
The elections are being held as seven MLCs elected by the Legislative Assembly are retiring on June 30. These include Govindaraju, Naseer Ahmed, Thipannappa and BK Hariprasad from Congress and MTB Nagaraj, Pratap Simha Nayak and Sunil Vallyapur from BJP.
At present, Congress has 37 members in the 75-member Legislative Council, followed by BJP with 29 and JDS with seven. The ruling party is hoping to improve its numbers in the Upper House through these elections.
About the author
Rohini Swamy, Associate Editor, News18, has been a journalist in the television and digital space for almost two decades. She covers South India for News18’s digital platform. She has worked before also…read more
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