the story So Far: Floods occur every year in Assam, but this time officials and residents of three historically almost untouched districts – Charaideo, Jorhat and Sivasagar – have had to bear the brunt. Assam government told the 126-member assembly on July 23 That the situation is the worst in 60 years. Scientists say climate uncertainty is the “new normal” and no part of Assam or the northeastern region can expect to remain unaffected by it.
Why is Assam flood prone?
Academician Arupjyoti Saikia writes in The Unquiet River: A Biography of the Brahmaputra that Assam is considered a water landscape in ancient texts. Assam’s geographical alignment – divided into two valleys surrounded by hill states with narrow outlets into Bangladesh – also leaves it vulnerable to floods if heavy rains fall in the hills of Arunachal Pradesh or Bhutan. Two valleys, named after the Brahmaputra and Barak rivers, are separated by the hills of Karbi Anglong and Dima Hasao districts. These rivers have about 120 tributaries and distributaries. Together, they carry large amounts of sediment, contributing to the extended floodplain of the Brahmaputra and widespread flooding, as evidenced by satellite imagery and flood-extent analysis from the Copernicus programme, the EU’s flagship Earth observation initiative, and the Global Flood Mapper of the Indian Institute of Human Settlements.
Historically, floods have occurred gradually, in several waves before or after monsoon months marked by almost evenly distributed rainfall. The rainfall pattern has been changing in the last few decades. Cloudburst-like conditions, fluctuations between flood and drought-like conditions due to long doses of heavy rainfall interspersed with prolonged dry spells and very heavy rainfall in small areas are adding to the state’s problems. Pressure on infrastructure in the hills, breach of embankments and changes in land use planning due to increasing human activities are also factors.
An occasional cause is the release of excess water upstream from dams; Floods in five districts of western Assam in July 2023 were caused by the “controlled” release of water from the Kurichu Dam in Bhutan. However, Nagaland’s 75 MW Doyang Dam proved to be a savior for eastern Assam’s Golaghat district when three of its neighboring districts – Jorhat, Sivasagar and Charaideo – were flooded almost overnight. Bibhash Sarma, engineer and consultant in the state water resources department, said the dam absorbed flood water and released it slowly to “reduce the peak of the flood”.
How did three districts of eastern Assam become submerged?
The highest number of people affected by the recent floods – 7.21 lakh – was on July 23, two days after 21 people were killed in seven districts. Charaideo, Jorhat and Sivasagar districts on the south bank of the Brahmaputra affected 6.78 lakh people, which is more than 94% of the total flood-affected population.
Massive runoff following excessive rainfall in Nagaland’s Longleng, Mokokchung, Mon and Longleng districts between July 18 and 20 caused unprecedented flooding, killing nine people in a landslide in Mon town. The situation has worsened due to continuous heavy rains in the affected districts. The Chief Minister said that Assam and adjoining areas of Nagaland received 435-490% more rainfall than normal. Meteorologists said the upper air cyclonic circulation formed at lower tropospheric levels generated convergence of excessive moisture in already saturated hill catchments along the Assam-Nagaland border and caused exceptionally heavy rainfall.
India Meteorological Department data shows that on July 18, 19 and 20, Wokha received 239 mm rainfall, while Mokokchung recorded 167 mm, Mangakolemba 211 mm and Longleng 152.2 mm. On the night of July 18, Sonari in Charaideo district received about 190 mm of rain. From 16 to 22 July, rainfall in many districts of eastern Assam was significantly above normal – 46% in Jorhat, 47% in Sivasagar, and 147% in Golaghat (adjacent to Jorhat).
When floods in Assam have been worse in years past, why is attention being paid to the current situation?
Assam is not untouched by deadly floods. The official death toll was 160 in 2017 and 181 in 2022, the year when storms and lightning killed another 78 people and affected 55 lakh people in 32 of 35 districts in the state. However, unlike this time, deaths and damage were distributed proportionately across the length and breadth of the state.
What makes the crisis in these three districts worrying is their relatively flood-free history. People in these districts say the last major flood occurred in 1950, when a devastating earthquake made devastating floods a common occurrence in Assam. Assam Parliamentary Affairs Minister Piyush Hazarika told the assembly that the floods in the eastern part of the state were the worst in the last 60 years.
Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said people and officials in Charaideo, Jorhat and Sivasagar have become alert as unlike other parts of Assam, which have been unusually dry this year, these districts hardly have any history of major floods. Although the 4,426 sq km area covered by these districts was largely considered to be above normal flood levels, the annals of the then Ahom kingdom mention floods in 1691 and 1793. According to KK Chhatradhara, an environmental activist from the flood-prone Dhemaji district on the north bank of the Brahmaputra, the situation in the three districts indicates that the disaster interval in this “safe” part of Assam could be reduced from more than 100 years to 50-75 years.
What are the lessons from this disaster?
One of the promises the Bharatiya Janata Party made in 2016 to end the 15-year Congress rule in Assam was to make Assam flood-free. Experts say this is easier said than done. Parimal C. Bhattacharjee, environmentalist and former professor at Gauhati University, said controlling rivers and other natural water bodies is inviting disaster. “You have to let nature take its course and learn to live with floods, as the Mishing community does by building chang-ghar (elevated houses above the normal flood level),” he said.
The Government of Assam launched the ‘Life with Floods’ scheme in the 1990s, which included construction of elevated platforms with drinking water, sanitation and health care facilities. It was withdrawn due to allegations of corruption. However, experts agree that floods have become harder to live with today due to climate change, anthropogenic activities and pressure on infrastructure. Partha Jyoti Das, a climate, water and disaster expert at biodiversity conservation group Aranyak, said preventing or managing floods is a futile exercise. “We can monitor, forecast, provide early warning and strengthen our disaster management by decentralizing it to the panchayat level, where people are trained to sense an impending disaster and act accordingly, as well as assess the embankments annually. By coordinating with neighboring states, we can reduce losses and damages,” he said.
“Changing rainfall patterns are the new normal and the administrative machinery must understand that no part of Assam or anywhere in the Northeast is safe from floods. Everyone needs to be alert to the possibility of floods and related disasters during the six rainy months in the region,” he said.
What are the challenges ahead?
Experts have highlighted a flaw in the government’s approach to disaster management: identifying risks and focusing on high-risk areas. “Planning needs to change. If low- or zero-risk areas become high-risk overnight, very few people can do it, as was the case in three districts, where administrative preparedness was lacking. Getting the right people for climate-smart or climate-resilient flood management was important,” Mr Das said.
Experts say the second step is surface water management by reducing or minimizing the damage caused by unscientific roads, flyovers, hydropower projects, housing and other infrastructure projects, which have claimed massive wetlands that once acted as water sponges during floods. However, as Bibhash Sarma pointed out, a major challenge is to link old discharge data with climate change conditions. “Old discharge data, based on which design engineers estimate flood impacts on projects for 30-50 years, has become redundant due to changed conditions. Collecting new data is a difficult task due to the unpredictability of today’s conditions,” he explained.
Engineers said taking climate change into account changes designs and increases the size and cost of projects. Officials always veto such amendments because they “do not conform to standards” or are “uneconomical.” He said there is a need to change the mindset of officials and policy makers to reduce or mitigate the impact of floods, landslides and other natural disasters.
