Cloudbursts, Floods Yet Rain Deficit: Why Doesn’t India’s ‘Normal’ Monsoon Feel Normal Anymore? | Explainers News

Last Updated:August 06, 2026, 11:48 IST

India may record ‘normal’ monsoon rainfall this year. But scientists say seasonal averages no longer capture the growing extremes of floods, cloudbursts and prolonged dry spells

It has become a familiar paradox every monsoon. One part of the country is battling devastating floods while another is anxiously waiting for rain. Cities witness roads turning into rivers after a few hours of downpour, while farmers elsewhere watch crops wither under dry skies. Yet, when the India Meteorological Department (IMD) releases its seasonal update, which often reads “normal” monsoon.

This year has brought that contradiction into sharp focus. After a severely deficient June and predictions that a strengthening El Niño would weaken the season, July surprised meteorologists with near-normal rainfall. But the relief may be temporary. The IMD now expects below-normal rainfall during August and September, while satellite images continue to show an uneven spread of rainfall across the country.

The growing mismatch raises a bigger question: What does a “normal monsoon” even mean in an era of climate change?

Why A ‘Normal Monsoon’ Doesn’t Feel Normal Anymore

The IMD defines monsoon performance using the Long Period Average (LPA), calculated from rainfall recorded over a 50-year reference period between 1971 and 2020. Under this system, annual average rainfall stands at 868.6 mm. This replaced the earlier baseline, based on 1951-2000, when the annual average was about 880.6 mm.

If seasonal rainfall falls between 96% and 104% of this benchmark, the monsoon is categorised as “normal”. Lower values are classified as below normal or deficient, while higher totals indicate above-normal or excess rainfall.

This system provides farmers, policymakers and economists with a national benchmark in order to plan agriculture, water management and food production. However, the benchmark measures only how much rain fell.

It does not say much about where the rain fell, how intensely it fell or whether it arrived when crops and reservoirs actually needed it.

For example, after a deficit of nearly 40% in June, widespread rainfall in July dramatically narrowed the gap, even though El Niño conditions were expected to suppress rainfall. The IMD had forecast below-normal rainfall in July at less than 94% of the LPA. While 94% appears close to “normal”, climate experts argued that today’s “normal” monsoon actually represents less rainfall than it did a few years ago.

At the same time, different parts of the country experienced completely different realities. Some regions were inundated by intense spells of rain, while others continued facing rainfall deficits. The IMD now expects rainfall during August and September to remain below 94% of the long-period average, despite July’s recovery.

According to Upasona Ghosh, Associate Professor at the Indian Institute of Public Health, Bhubaneswar, as mentioned in an ETV Bharat report, the challenge is not just about less rainfall but also about it becoming far more intense. When it rains, it rains heavily, which causes landslides and severe flooding that disrupt farming.

How India Has Seen Extreme Rains In The Past Few Weeks

Climate scientists increasingly argue that rainfall distribution has become just as important as rainfall quantity.

India is currently experiencing extreme climate conditions simultaneously. Heavy rainfall triggered landslides in Kerala’s Wayanad, claiming lives, injuring several others. The 24-hour rainfall in the region was nearly 10 times the average daily rainfall normally expected in July.

Meanwhile, in Maharashtra, landslides in Ratnagiri disrupted traffic along the Mumbai-Pune Expressway near Khandala. Nearly 13 people died in over three days. Waterlogging paralysed Western Railway train services while several flights from Mumbai were diverted.

Ironically, despite these disasters, India recorded an overall 38% deficit monsoon rainfall in June. The country experienced highly uneven precipitation, with some district receiving 600%-1,700% of their normal rainfall through intense cloudbursts.

On May 30, Rajasthan saw a powerful dust storm sweeping Bikaner and other neighbouring districts, turning the sky orange-brown and reducing visibility. Wind speeds reached 70-80 km per hour before heavy rainfall followed.

While western disturbances triggered these events, scientists say they were part of a much larger climate pattern. Prolonged heatwaves dried out the soil and loosened vast amounts of dust, while strong winds carried the sediment into the atmosphere before unstable weather systems unleashed intense rainfall. Rather than occurring in isolation, heatwaves, dust storms and heavy downpours are increasingly unfolding as interconnected, cascading climate events in a warming world.

Is El Niño Becoming A Less Reliable Indicator

Another major factor reshaping India’s weather is the growing influence of El Niño. This natural warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean disrupts atmospheric circulation across much of the globe. In India, it has traditionally been associated with weaker southwest monsoons, raising the risk of drought in some regions. At the same time, it can also contribute to conditions that fuel intense localised rainfall and cloudbursts in others, making the monsoon increasingly uneven and difficult to predict.

Scientists warn that particularly strong El Niño events could rival some of the worst on record, posing serious risks to agriculture, water supplies and food security. While El Niño itself is a natural climate phenomenon, its interaction with global warming is making weather patterns far more erratic.

A warmer planet amplifies the effects of natural climate cycles, increasing the likelihood of both prolonged dry spells and extreme rainfall occurring within the same season.

For example, a warmer atmosphere can hold approximately 7% more moisture for every one-degree Celsius increase in temperature. When weather systems eventually release that moisture, rainfall tends to occur in shorter, more intense bursts.

At the same time, rising temperatures over land and oceans are altering the atmospheric circulation patterns that have historically governed the Indian monsoon.

So, El Niño, once considered one of the strongest indicators of weak Indian monsoons, is also becoming a less reliable predictor.

Despite expectations that strengthening El Niño conditions would significantly suppress rainfall, July recorded near-normal precipitation, challenging long-held forecasting assumptions. Scientists increasingly believe climate change is interacting with natural weather systems in complex ways that make the monsoon less predictable than before.

Rather than producing a uniformly weak or strong monsoon, climate change appears to be making rainfall increasingly erratic.

Wet Gets Wetter, Dry Gets Drier

The current erratic rainfall pattern can be summarised as “Wet Gets Wetter, Dry Gets Drier”.  As the planet warms, the atmosphere is able to hold more moisture, making the water cycle more intense and unpredictable. Higher temperatures also accelerate evaporation, causing dry regions to lose water faster while increasing the potential for heavier downpours in places that do receive rain. In other words, climate change is making the hydrological cycle faster, stronger and far more erratic.

Research published in Nature suggests this could deepen the contrast between wet and dry regions. Areas that already receive heavy rainfall may experience even more intense precipitation, while drier regions could become increasingly arid as evaporation outpaces rainfall. In many parts of the world, scientists warn, water extremes are likely to become the new normal.

India is already beginning to reflect this pattern. Rainfall deficits can coexist with devastating floods. Farmers in one state may grapple with drought while neighbouring districts battle overflowing rivers and waterlogged fields. Reservoirs run dangerously low in some regions even as others receive record-breaking rainfall. Climate change is no longer simply reducing or increasing rainfall—it is changing when, where and how India’s water arrives.

How Climate Disasters Affect Common Man

For households, the consequences are becoming increasingly visible — from vegetable prices and water shortages to traffic chaos and flood damage.

In fact, the economic costs are becoming harder to ignore. Every extreme weather event leaves behind damaged roads, bridges, crops, power infrastructure and public health systems, placing increasing pressure on government finances. Insurance losses are mounting, repeated climate disasters are disrupting businesses and investment, and the poorest communities often bear the heaviest burden. For developing countries like India, the challenge is even greater, adapting to a changing climate while continuing to grow the economy.

Scientists and policymakers say adapting to climate change can no longer be treated as a long-term goal. It requires immediate investment in flood-resilient cities, stronger drainage systems, climate-smart infrastructure, heat action plans, better early warning systems, and the protection of forests, wetlands and other natural buffers that reduce disaster risks.

But no country can tackle the crisis alone. As extreme weather becomes more frequent, experts say international cooperation on cutting greenhouse gas emissions, expanding climate finance, sharing clean technologies and strengthening disaster preparedness will be critical. Climate change is no longer a distant environmental challenge—it is already reshaping economies, infrastructure, public health and national security around the world.