When the first votes are cast at 7 am today to decide who will rule Bengal for the next five years, there will be an elephant in the polling booth: SIR, or Special Intensive Revision of Electoral Rolls.More than 3.6 crore voters will exercise their franchise in 152 constituencies in the first phase of the 2026 state assembly elections; The remaining 6.82 crore voters from other 142 constituencies will follow them next Wednesday. But this election – especially in seats where voting is taking place today – will be about the disenfranchisement of 27 lakh voters who will not be able to vote despite having proof of their right to vote.The Election Commission has found that there is some “logical anomaly” among these 27 lakh voters. This can mean anything, from misspelled names to surname mismatches (with parents) to monks serving in missions whose legal guardians are the heads of those missions. In the 16 districts where voting is going on today, the voting capacity is 9.4% less than before the SIR exercise (a significant portion, perhaps almost half, are dead or “absent” or “transferred” voters).Nowhere is the shadow of SIR longer than Murshidabad, where 7.4 lakh voters have been lost, and Malda, where 4.5 lakh voters have been lost. It is Murshidabad that encapsulates everything that has gone wrong with the SIR, which was originally intended to exclude non-voters, but which has over the years disenfranchised people from voting.Of the total 7.4 lakh deletions in this district, more than 4.5 lakh occurred during the “adjudication” stage (to determine “logical inconsistency”). The biggest impact is in Shamsherganj constituency, often called ground zero of the crisis. In fact 74,775 voters – representing a staggering 32% of the electorate – have been disenfranchised, sparking a legal and political battle that could rage even after the new assembly is formed.All this has dulled the luster of electoral battles to some extent, especially in constituencies involving political heavyweights. But these are also in good measure in the first phase: the political future of at least three such stalwarts – BJPSuvendu Adhikari and Dilip Ghosh and Adhir Choudhary of Congress – depending on how voters vote today (though Adhikari has a second chance in the second phase, as he is also contesting against CM Mamata Banerjee from Bhawanipur).Adhikari, who has spent the last few years ignoring allegations of “turned-turned-turned-turned-politician”, is now facing a turncoat himself in his home seat Nandigram. His rival is Pabitra Kar, a former Adhikari acolyte with strong links with Hindu organisations, who is credited with securing a lead of 3,500 votes for Adhikari in the crucial Boyal constituency in the 2021 elections. CM Banerjee was present there for several hours and alleged massive manipulation, pictures of which went viral (and are still the subject of a court battle). Adhikari won by a margin of 1,956 votes. This time, Kar may give his former mentor a few sleepless nights till May 4, when the votes will be counted.More than 280 km away, Congress veteran Chaudhary is fighting his battle for political survival in Behrampur. Chaudhary is a five-time MP, but after losing the last Lok Sabha election, he is now looking for political rehabilitation through the Bengal Assembly. BJP won this seat in 2021, and this time the fight is likely to be extremely triangular, with Trinamool forming the third party (along with BJP and Congress).Veteran BJP leader Ghosh is facing a similar situation in his home seat Kharagpur Sadar, where he is returning after 10 years. His victory over former Congress cabinet minister Gyan Singh Sohanpal in 2016 marked his dominance in the BJP state unit, but he was forced by his own party to abandon the field he knew well in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Ghosh would be hoping that Kharagpur would support him for the second time.Another political dynasty that is looking for assistance is the family of former Congress Union Minister ABA Ghani Khan Choudhary. The district is seeing Khan Chowdhury’s niece Mausam Benazir Noor, who is fighting to reclaim the family’s political legacy after coming back to the Congress after a stint with the Trinamool and a stint in the Rajya Sabha. But this district is also likely to see a triangular fight – and the arithmetic in such contests could be slippery.Many of the 16 districts going to polls today – from Darjeeling in the hills to East Midnapore on the coast of the Bay of Bengal – have been BJP strongholds, and the party will be betting on the removal of SIR to keep it that way. Nine of these 16 districts – Cooch Behar, Alipurduar, Jalpaiguri, Darjeeling, Kalimpong, North Dinajpur, South Dinajpur, Malda and Bankura – gave the BJP 38 (out of a total of 66), which eventually helped it reach the figure of 77 seats in the last assembly.But voter anger and the resulting anti-BJP solidarity seen outside polling stations in the districts may also mean something for Trinamool in the EVMs. How much that anger translates into anti-BJP votes and how many seats the Trinamool can limit the BJP to in these 16 districts may well shape the configuration of the next Bengal Assembly.
heated seats
NandigramAdhikari, who has spent five years ignoring defector allegations after switching from TMC, is now facing a turncoat himself. Adhikari defeated CM Mamata Banerjee here in 2021 by 1,956 votes. His one-time confidant, Kar, is his TMC challenger. Identity politics continues to dominate the landscape, with demography expected to play a significant role. In the 2011 census, the population of Hindus was recorded at 65.8% and the population of Muslims was 34%. But under SIR, 12,500 Muslim voters were removed. The Sabar Institute says the total electorate in Nandigram is 14,462, of which the share of Muslim voters is 95.5%. Residents say the main issue at the ground level is haphazard development, symbolized by, among other things, a permanent structure for a railway station, but no rail link to the area.Previous winners: 2011 (TMC), 2016 (TMC), 2021 (BJP)Kharagpur SadarGhosh returns to this assembly seat after 10 years as he struggles to regain his position within the BJP. A former state BJP president, he first rose to fame here in 2016 by defeating Congress MLA Gyan Singh Sohanpal. The challenge this time for contestants in a constituency with historically narrow victory margins is massive voter list purge – Saber Institute analysis shows gross deletions on over 60,730 voters under special intense vetting. This time Ghosh’s main challenger is Trinamool. ,Instead of Congress. BJP retained the seat in 2021 but its winning candidate in the last election, Hiran Chatterjee, has moved to another constituency. Now Ghosh faces competition from Trinamool’s Pradeep GovernmentJoe is emphasizing his local roots and has questioned why the BJP has removed the previous representatives from the seat.Previous winners: 2011 (Congress), 2016 (BJP), 2021 (BJP)MaltipurSituated in the heart of Malda, there is a three-way battle for the seat that challenges the patience of political dynasties against the might of state welfare. The seat, once a Congress stronghold, has now become the center of an emotional and mathematical battle as Mausam Benazir Noor – relying on the legacy of her uncle ABA Ghani Khan Chowdhury – has returned to the Congress after a seven-year stint with the Trinamool. His biggest rival is Trinamool’s Abdur Rahim Boxi, who won here in 2021 by over 91,000 votes. Boxi is counting on TMC’s direct welfare delivery, arguing that CM Banerjee has inherited the developmental ethos championed by the Khan Choudhary family. BJP’s Ashish Das would like to carry forward the party’s success in 2024 from Malda North Lok Sabha seat. The minority vote (over 60% voters) in this Muslim-dominated seat had united behind the TMC in 2021, but with the return of Mausam Noor, that vote bank now faces a potential split – which could favor the BJP.Previous winners: 2011 (RSP), 2016 (Congress), 2021 (TMC)SiliguriThis seat of North Bengal, which was a stronghold of the Left for 30 years, has now become a stronghold of the BJP. In 2016, the Left wrested the seat from Trinamool, but there was a decisive change in 2021, when former CPM leader Shankar Ghosh won it for the BJP over Trinamool’s Om Prakash Mishra by a margin of over 35,000 votes. The 2026 elections focus on the demand for a separate Siliguri district. Currently, the city is divided between Darjeeling and Jalpaiguri districts, forcing residents to travel up to 50-80 km for administrative purposes. Trinamool candidate and Mayor Deb has proposed a 12-point roadmap to push forward the demand for a separate district. Ghosh is presenting a master plan for infrastructure and smart city development. According to Sabar Institute, the gross SIR deletion in Siliguri is 42,979 voters.Previous winners: 2011 (TMC), 2016 (CPM), 2021 (BJP)dinhataThis border constituency, about 700 km north of Kolkata, is a crucible of geography, migration and disputed control over land. Historically the stronghold of Forward Bloc patriarch Kamal Guha, the region has been transformed by bloody inter-Left conflicts into a fierce modern duel between Trinamool’s Udayan Guha and the rising BJP. The 2026 contest between Minister of State Guha and BJP’s Ajay Ray is shaped by a legacy of structural violence. The Rajbanshi community and refugee groups hold the key to electoral fortunes here. While the BJP has successfully weaponised identity – citing infiltration and persecution of minorities in nearby Rangpur – the Trinamool is relying on organizational dominance and welfare schemes. With the removal of Rajbanshi’s name from the SIR and the issuance of NRC notice, problems are sure to increase for BJP.Previous winners: 2011 (AIFB), 2016 (TMC), 2021 (BJP)BehrampoagainBehrampur, a 70-year-old Congress bastion, is now the stage of a high-profile triangular contest involving incumbent BJP’s Subrata Maitra, Trinamool Congress’s Naru Gopal Mukherjee and veteran Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, who has made a dramatic comeback to state politics after nearly 30 years. Maitra is relying on hyper-local campaigning and a radical narrative against “infiltration” and corruption under the Mamata Banerjee government, while local municipality chairman Mukherjee is relying on welfare schemes to woo voters. For Adhir, a five-time MP, it is a battle of survival, legacy and political revival, but he is entering it with the support of a weak party organisation. Communal polarization is the main factor here – Behrampur has 70% Hindu voters – and the campaign has been defined by temple visits and raising issues related to identity politics.Previous winners: 2011, 2016 (Congress), 2021 (BJP)
