Bihar Election 2025: Both tradition and change will be tested in the first phase of Bihar assembly elections to be held on November 6. Political parties have spent weeks playing out caste equations and announcing welfare promises. So, what will matter more to voters this time: race or campaign pledges?
Caste has been an immovable pillar of Bihar politics for decades. Every political party plans its candidates and messaging around them. But this election seems a little different. Both the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition Grand Alliance have based their manifestos not only on identity but also on the aspirations of young voters seeking jobs and women seeking empowerment. Youth and women are the two largest groups among the state’s 7.45 crore voters.
The NDA’s “sankalp patra” opens with a promise to create 1 crore jobs in the next five years. It also promises to set up a mega skill center in every district and turn Bihar into a “global skills hub”. The alliance has said it will attract investments worth Rs 1 lakh crore and create manufacturing units and 10 industrial parks across the state.
These promises are ambitious and aimed at wooing voters from small towns and unemployed youth who are forced to migrate to big cities in search of employment.
Janata Dal (United) or JD (U) leader Nitish Kumar’s health has become a topic of discussion in the campaign. He was briefly present at the NDA manifesto release event but did not address the programme. His declining visibility has created uneasiness within the alliance. Earlier, his personal image had helped the NDA attract Muslim votes. This time many Muslim voters may give preference to the Grand Alliance.
The grand alliance led by Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav has moved further. Its manifesto, ‘Tejashwi’s soul’, begins with “One Family, One Job” (a permanent government job for every household) within 20 months of government formation. It also promises 1.25 crore jobs in the next five years along with a monthly allowance of Rs 2,000 for unemployed graduates and Rs 3,000 for unemployed post-graduates.
The RJD leader, who has been declared the chief ministerial candidate by his grand alliance, has built his campaign on the promise that every youth deserves work and respect, not just handouts.
The opposition said all contract and outsourced employees will be regularized. It will also waive competitive exam form fees, pay for travel to exam centers and take action against paper leaks.
Both sides agree that unemployment is the biggest concern of Bihar. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s government has improved infrastructure, but many say it has not done enough. They remember the paper leak in 2024 and the police lathicharge on protesting students. The ruling coalition knows that this anger runs very deep and has left an impact on the public mood.
Youth are the heartbeat of the voters of Bihar. According to Election Commission data, 3.93 crore voters (about 53 per cent of the total) are below 40 years of age. Of these, 14 lakh are first-time voters aged 18 or 19. Their voting could decide many close contests. They are no longer easily influenced by caste slogans. They want stability, respect and a stable and respectable income.
However, in villages, surnames still define alliances and caste arithmetic decides where votes will go.
Who benefits from caste mathematics?
Caste mathematics remains central to the manifestos. The NDA is banking on the support of Nitish Kumar’s traditional extremely backward caste (EBC) base and key upper castes like Brahmins, Rajputs and Bhumihars. But this balance appears to have changed slightly.
Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) chief Mukesh Sahni, who is from the Mallah (fisherman) community, was with the NDA in 2020. This time, he has joined the grand alliance and has been promised the post of Deputy Chief Minister. Their community constitutes 2.6 percent of the population of Bihar.
His return to the grand alliance appears to have drawn a section of his community, once loyal to the NDA, back to the opposition faction.
IP Gupta’s Indian Inclusive Party (IIP) has also joined the opposition alliance. Gupta claims to represent the Tatma and Tanti communities, which are spread across 35 of Bihar’s 38 districts with around 80 lakh members. He says his group has between 10,000 and 50,000 voters in 150 assembly constituencies.
In 2020, both communities supported NDA. This time his innings has further tilted the local mathematics. The combined reach of both the groups could upset the established equations and cause the ruling alliance to lose an estimated 7.75 per cent vote share.
On the other hand, the NDA has Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), which has about 5.5 percent votes. But analysts say this increase cannot fully compensate for the loss caused by the defection of Sahni and Gupta.
Other political forces have also changed the picture. Upendra Kushwaha has joined NDA. Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM, which caused damage to the opposition in 2020, has apparently lost its previous influence.
Caste also figures in the list of candidates. The RJD is contesting on 143 seats, of which it has given 52 of its 104 general category seats to Yadavs (who constitute 14.26 per cent of the state’s population), 18 to Muslims (who constitute 17.70 per cent of the state’s population) and 20 to Scheduled Castes (who together constitute 19.65 per cent).
The NDA candidates include 86 upper caste candidates, who together constitute just over 10 per cent of the state’s population. BJP has not fielded any Muslim candidate.
Of the total 214 castes in Bihar, there are 98 extremely backward castes, which constitute 36 percent of the state’s population. This time, representatives of none of these 98 groups are contesting elections from any major party. Their total population is over 1.76 crore, and their absence from the list may impact many constituencies.
The role of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party is uncertain. It has fielded 236 candidates and previously gained attention with a two-year statewide campaign. But as soon as voting began, its visibility has declined markedly. Many believe that it will mainly draw votes from urban and dominant caste supporters of the NDA.
Migration is another factor. Many workers who returned for Chhath festival are now going back to their jobs outside Bihar. Long distance trains are showing full in train booking. His absence could hurt the NDA, which benefited from the support of migrant workers during the 2020 COVID-19 elections. That year, the NDA’s total vote share was 37.26 per cent against the Grand Alliance’s 37.23 per cent, a difference of only 12,700 votes.
Women – a major vote bank
If caste defines the roots, women define the branches of Bihar’s political tree. After puberty, they are the second major focus. They constitute almost half of the voters (3.5 crore or 47 percent to be precise). Their voting percentage is often higher than that of men.
In the last elections, the voting of women has been more than that of men. In 2020, 59.69 percent women voted, while the percentage of men was 54.45.
Over the decades, Nitish has worked to build a loyal base among women through schemes like education, bicycles, jobs and prohibition. This time, his alliance has strengthened its pitch with the idea of ”Lakhpati Didis” (women earning Rs 1 lakh per year through small enterprises, supported by loans of up to Rs 20 lakh). Under the Chief Minister Mahila Rozgar Yojana, Rs 10,000 has already been transferred to the bank accounts of 1.21 crore women.
The Grand Alliance has tried to counter this with its “Mai Bahin Maan Yojana”, which offers up to Rs 2,500 per month or Rs 30,000 per year for five years. It also promises free bus travel, land rights in the name of women, regularization of livelihood workers and interest-free loans. This act of control stays in the memory longer than any slogan.
Beneath the big promises in the manifestos, there is fatigue. Voters have heard many of these pledges before. Still, cash in the account or job letter in hand changes the way households vote.
Beyond caste and gender, the campaign has its own undercurrents. Nitish’s visible weakness, whispers about leadership within the NDA and the BJP’s cautious distance have created uneasiness among loyal supporters.
Meanwhile, Tejashwi’s rallies draw energy from the youth and the unemployed, who see in him a reflection of their own frustrations.
final picture
Both alliances have offered social welfare promises such as free electricity, health insurance, pensions and support for farmers. The NDA talks about industrial development, while the grand alliance promises to guarantee minimum support price for crops.
Nitish says that his roadmap will include Bihar among the top 10 developed states of India in five years. Opposition leaders say Bihar is two decades behind and his plan reflects the real aspirations of the people.
As the state goes to the polls in the first phase on Thursday, Bihar politics rests on two foundations: caste and livelihood. Every alliance has tried to strike a balance between the two.
Discussions in the state now revolve around two questions: Will caste loyalty outweigh the hunger for jobs? And will campaign promises translate into confidence at the ballot box? No there are definite answers to the questions. It is clear that Bihar stands at a crossroads between dynasty politics and livelihood politics.
