The political map of India today looks decided – almost decided. Under whose rule is the major part of the country? BJP Or its coalition partners. As of May 2026, the BJP-led NDA is in power in 21 of the 31 states and union territories – numbers that point to the dominance of the BJP-led ruling coalition.But politics rarely works in a straight line.Look closer, and the picture becomes more layered. The BJP is clearly the most powerful political force today, but the tone of its dominance is not uniform everywhere. In some states, this is excessive. In others, it depends on colleagues. And in some areas, it is still trying to break in.This is what makes the current situation of politics interesting. The BJP is not just winning elections – it is spreading its footprint across the country. When the results of assembly elections in five states and Puducherry will be declared on May 4, it will be interesting to see how much benefit BJP and its allies get in this phase of political battle.Here’s how BJP has slowly spread its influence across the country
Garh: Where BJP sets the rules
Let’s start with the Hindi belt and parts of the west. This is where BJP doesn’t just compete, it defines the competition.States like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat remain its biggest power centers at present. In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP won a comfortable majority in 2022 with over 250 seats and around 41-42% vote share despite anti-incumbency. In Madhya Pradesh, it returned to power in 2023 with 163 seats out of 230 and nearly 48% vote share, one of its strongest performances in the state. Because of the Prime Minister, Gujarat remains its safest stronghold. Narendra Modi. In the 2022 election, the BJP won a record 156 seats out of 182, with the vote share exceeding 52%, turning the once competitive state into near one-party dominance.
Add to this Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Haryana, where the BJP has grown stronger in recent years. In Rajasthan (2023), it crossed the majority mark with 115 seats and more than 42% vote share. In Chhattisgarh, it returned with 54 out of 90 seats and about 47% vote share.In many of these states, the BJP’s vote share is around or above 45%, creating a ‘winner-takes-all’ dynamic where a divided opposition struggles to hold on.What explains this continuity? For the BJP, it is a mix of Hindutva politics and welfare delivery – often called ‘beneficiary’ politics. Schemes reaching out directly to beneficiaries have helped convert support into loyalty in these states.
How BJP expanded beyond its base
If the Hindi belt is the BJP’s comfort zone, its real political story lies in how it moved beyond it.For years, states like Odisha and Maharashtra were seen as strongholds of regional parties. This has changed in the last 12 years.The BJP has steadily evolved from a marginal force to the ruling party in Odisha. In the 2019 assembly elections, it increased its tally to 23 seats and about 32% vote share, and emerged as the principal opposition. By 2024, this translated to a rise to power, effectively ending the decades of regional dominance of Biju Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD).Maharashtra was a more complicated story where in the end, the BJP appointed its own Chief Minister in the state. In the 2019 assembly elections, BJP became the largest party by winning 105 seats with 26% vote share. Since then, through divisions among regional powers Shiv Sena And by managing the NCP and Mahayuti alliance, the BJP has ensured that it remains the central force in the government. This is where BJP has shown flexibility. It is not dependent on any one route to power. In some states, it wins outright. In others, it rearranges the coalition equations to emerge on top.A major part of the strategy has been social – expanding beyond dominant caste groups and targeting smaller OBC groups and communities. Over time, this has helped the BJP weaken its traditional regional vote banks.
The fine print: Where BJP still needs allies
Despite clearing the map, BJP’s dominance in many states comes with some conditions.The current Modi government 3.0 at the center is dependent on allies like TDP and JDU.In Bihar, the BJP is no longer just a junior partner – it has managed to convince Nitish Kumar Had to step aside and now has its own Chief Minister. In the 2025 assembly elections, the alliance swept the state, and the BJP emerged as the largest party with 89 seats, its strongest ever performance in the state. Nitish Kumar’s exit confirmed the BJP’s dominance, paving the way for Samrat Chaudhary to become the chief minister, the party’s first direct leadership in a state government.The BJP also strengthened its position in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, winning 12 seats, similar to its ally JD(U), with a 21% vote share, contributing to the NDA’s total 47% vote share in the state. Although the BJP now has a party member as Chief Minister, Bihar is still not a “pure” BJP state. The party still needs the numbers from JD(U) and Chirag Pawan’s parties, as it does not stand at the majority figure on its own. In Andhra Pradesh, the BJP’s electoral presence remains limited (single-digit vote share), and it acts as a junior partner in the TDP-led system.In the Northeast, the BJP has built an extensive governance network through the North-East Democratic Alliance (NEDA). In Assam, it is strong on its own – winning 60 out of 126 seats in 2021 with about 33% vote share (more with allies). But in states like Nagaland and Meghalaya, it rules with regional partners and has a lower seat share.In these areas the influence of BJP is shared and negotiated.
Incomplete map: Where BJP is still making efforts
Despite all these expansions, there are still major flaws.South remains the biggest challenge for BJP.In Tamil NaduWith the first phase of voting already underway on April 23, the BJP’s vote share in 2021 stood at 2.6%, though it has increased in pockets since then. However, the party remained structurally dependent on the AIADMK in the recently concluded 2026 elections, relying on the alliance to remain electorally relevant against key Dravidian players. Despite efforts to build an independent base, the BJP is still some way away from emerging as a single force in the state.In Kerala, the BJP has struggled to reach the bipolar contest. In 2021, it failed to win a single seat with 11.4% vote share, showing attendance but no conversion into seats.West Bengal is the main battlefield. In the 2021 assembly elections, the BJP took a huge leap – winning 77 of the 294 seats with a vote share of 38.4%, which was almost negligible a decade ago. But it still fell short of ousting the ruling party, which secured 215 seats with about 48% vote share.This gap between strong vote share and actual power is what the BJP is trying to reduce in 2026.These states show that while the BJP is expanding, there are still parts where regional identity and leadership matter.
2026 elections: the real test
This is why the 2026 assembly elections are important.States like West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala will test whether the BJP can convert presence into power.In Assam, the BJP under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma wants to retain power based on its performance in 2021.The stakes are highest in West Bengal. BJP is trying to convert its 38.4% vote base into majority.In Tamil Nadu, even a 15-20% vote share or 20-30 seats would mark a sea change.In Kerala, the focus remains on incremental gains – expanding vote share beyond the existing base. In Puducherry, the test for the BJP will be whether it can move beyond alliance dependence and expand its standalone footprint in the Union Territory.These elections will show whether BJP’s growth is still increasing, stabilizing or decreasing.So, is India BJP-dominated?Short answer: yes and no.Yes, because at present no party matches the reach of BJP. It rules most states, is at the center and thus often sets the national political agenda. But also not, because this dominance is not uniform. There are still many states where BJP is not in power. More recently its power was challenged during a special Parliament session. For the first time, the Modi government failed to get a bill passed in the Lok Sabha as it did not have the two-thirds majority (272) for the Constitution Amendment Bill. In 2014 and 2019, BJP had this number with 282 and 303 seats respectively. India is not a one-party system at present and probably will not be in the future. The BJP is clearly leading the political landscape today – but there are still some shortcomings as some key regional players still hold on to their strongholds. The map is mostly saffron, but not completely. And we will know on May 4 whether the map becomes more saffron or takes a different colour.
