Human civilizations have organized themselves according to the predictable patterns of the seasons. The past is a reliable guide that shapes the future for agriculture, commerce and daily lifestyle. Today that basic assumption is being constantly challenged. As greenhouse gas emissions continue to alter Earth’s thermodynamic equilibrium, the global climate system is characterized by extreme instability, leading to both predictable variations, such as gradual temperature increases, and highly unpredictable, severe anomalies. The preparedness of nations to face these disruptions is one of the defining challenges of the 21st century.
One of the major drivers of these global meteorological disturbances is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. The World Meteorological Organization’s latest prediction is an 80% chance of El Niño conditions emerging during the period June–August 2026, rising to 90% or more during the latter half of the year. Driven by unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, this developing cycle threatens to significantly increase global temperatures and disrupt global precipitation patterns. Since agricultural systems and food security are the first lines of contact to these changes, preparing for El Niño requires a fundamental reimagining of agricultural resilience and adaptive resource management.
A clear example of this vulnerability is emerging in India, where the coming summer monsoon – strongly influenced by the development of El Niño conditions – is projected to deliver less rainfall than expected. From June to September, the monsoon provides about 75–80 percent of the country’s annual rainfall and decides the fortunes of the agricultural sector, which employs about half the country’s workforce and contributes significantly to the gross domestic product (GDP). The Indian monsoon is not just a meteorological phenomenon; It is the lifeline of the subcontinent’s economy, supporting the livelihood of millions of people. When the monsoon falters, the consequences extend far beyond dry areas, impacting food security, inflation, energy systems and fundamental quality of life. Historically, El Niño events have been closely associated with weak monsoons and severe drought on the subcontinent. As pointed out in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) 2023 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change is increasing monsoon instability and crop-yield sensitivity, significantly threatening India’s agricultural economy. During strong El Niño events of 2015–2016 and 2023–2024, India experienced massive rainfall deficits, leading to widespread agricultural stress and water scarcity.
The most immediate impact of the dry monsoon is on agriculture. With more than half of India’s agricultural land dependent on rainfall, delayed or deficient rainfall hampers sowing and growth of kharif crops like rice, pulses, cotton and oilseeds, reducing yields and farm income. For small and marginal farmers, a failed harvest can lead to debt and economic distress. Therefore, building resilience requires a shift from water-intensive cropping patterns to drought-resilient agricultural practices, thereby reducing dependence on monsoon variability.
The impacts on daily life and public health are equally serious. Weak monsoon fails to replenish reservoirs and aquifers, further exacerbating the water crisis in India. According to NITI Aayog’s Composite Water Management Index (2019), more than 600 million Indians face high to extreme water stress. According to the Dynamic Groundwater Resources Assessment Report 2024 released by the Ministry of Jal Shakti, India’s total annual extractable groundwater resource was estimated to be 406 billion cubic meters (BCM), while the annual groundwater extraction for all uses was 246 BCM, resulting in an average stage of national groundwater extraction of about 61%.
As water levels decline, urban and rural communities experience drinking water shortages, rationing, and reliance on expensive alternative sources. Dry monsoons also increase heat waves, increasing demand for electricity for cooling and irrigation, often putting a strain on the electricity grid. In rural areas, declining agricultural opportunities trigger distress migration to cities, placing additional pressure on urban infrastructure. As a result, a weak monsoon could develop into a broader humanitarian and economic crisis, exposing the limitations of existing adaptation strategies.
India’s climate challenges are mirrored across the world. Countries face gradual changes, such as sea level rise and rising temperatures, and intense extremes such as drought, floods and heat waves. El Nino often serves as a global stress test, exposing vulnerabilities in food, water and disaster management systems.
Major El Niño events highlight these risks. The 1982–83 event caused severe floods in Peru and Ecuador and drought in Australia and south-eastern Africa. The 1997–98 event caused devastating floods in East Africa and massive forest fires in Indonesia. The 2015–16 event affected more than 60 million people through drought, food insecurity, coral bleaching, and wildfires. More recently, the 2023–24 El Niño contributed to record global temperatures, severe drought in the Amazon, and flooding in parts of East Africa, highlighting the increasing complexity of climate risks.
Apart from major El Niño events, agriculture and food systems have consistently been the most vulnerable sectors, with crop losses often leading to widespread economic and humanitarian crises. With WMO warning of a possible El Niño in 2026, global preparedness is under renewed scrutiny. In many developing countries, limited resources, weak early-warning systems, inadequate climate-resilient technologies and inadequate risk insurance are hindering adaptation, leaving communities vulnerable to climate shocks.
This global vulnerability is clearly reflected in shared transboundary ecosystems such as the Sundarban Delta. Despite a 2011 conservation agreement between India and Bangladesh, adaptation-focused bilateral cooperation is limited in ways that directly impact local communities. The Sundarban Delta shows how differences in governance, inclusion and equity shape climate adaptation in Gosaba, India, and Khulna, Bangladesh. Both regions face severe cyclones, floods and salinity intrusion, yet their approaches differ.
In Gosaba, adaptation initiatives such as the National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change (NAFCC) rely on technocratic, top-down infrastructure projects such as strengthening embankments. Without community participation or gender inclusion, these externally imposed strategies fail to address social vulnerabilities, land inequality and institutional corruption, often skewing resource distribution towards wealthy agricultural elites.
In contrast, in Khulna, Bangladesh, adaptation projects supported by the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and supported by NGOs emphasize participatory and community-based solutions. These initiatives promote saline-tolerant crops, mangrove restoration and women’s participation in savings cooperatives. Although Khulna still struggles with elite capture and political interference, its procedural and gender-inclusive design has proven more effective in reducing overall risk than Gosaba’s top-down approach.
Ultimately, these cases demonstrate that disaster resilience shifts from external, top-down imposed engineering projects to community-led governance that is based on local knowledge, safeguards equitable distribution, and promotes procedural inclusion.
It is therefore important to reimagine the key pillars of climate change preparedness and adaptation. Bridging the preparedness gap requires a shift from reactive disaster response to proactive risk management. As WMO has stressed, seasonal forecasts and effective early-warning systems are essential to protect lives and livelihoods.
Based on the Gosaba-Khulna comparison, an inclusive climate change should be based on three pillars: First, focusing on the transition from top-down, technical plans to community-based, participatory designs like the NAFCC in Gosaba. It should highlight Khulna’s success in organizing women into savings cooperatives and local decision-making committees to directly reduce social vulnerability.
Second, it should focus on using nature-based buffers such as community-managed mangrove reforestation and soil flushing/aquaculture diversification rather than fragile earthen embankments. This should highlight saline-tolerant crops as an important alternative to highly risky commercial shrimp farming.
Third, it should focus on neutralizing elite capture and institutional corruption, such as partisan distribution of embankment funds and fishing licenses. It should promote the development of self-reliance among local community networks to respond during emergencies, rather than relying solely on unregulated state-led interventions.
The possibility of a weak monsoon in India and the WMO’s warning of the development of El Nino conditions in 2026 underline the increasing instability of the global climate system. Preparation is no longer optional. Investments in climate-resilient agriculture, decentralized water management and resilient infrastructure can reduce vulnerability to future shocks. Ultimately, proactive adaptation is far less costly than repeated disaster recovery and will be critical to safeguarding economic stability and human well-being.
(Views expressed are personal)
This article is written by Mehdi Hussain, former research fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
