India’s rice stocks in government warehouses rose 15 per cent year-on-year to a record high at the start of June, while wheat inventories climbed to their highest level in five years following strong procurement from farmers, according to official data.State reserves of rice, including unmilled paddy, stood at a record 68.43 million metric tonnes as of June 1, far above the government’s July 1 target of 13.5 million tonnes.Wheat stocks reached 53.41 million tonnes, nearly double the official target of 27.6 million tonnes and the highest level since 2021.The sharp rise in grain inventories is expected to strengthen India’s food security position and provide the government with greater flexibility to manage domestic supplies and exports.
Export confidence despite El Nino concerns
According to Reuters, the record rice stockpile could help India, the world’s largest rice exporter, maintain shipments despite concerns that the newly emerged El Nino weather pattern may affect rainfall and crop production.“Rice stocks are more than adequate. That should give the government the confidence to continue exports despite forecasts of below-normal rainfall, which could affect production,” a New Delhi-based dealer at a global trading firm said, as cited by Reuters.India accounts for around 40 per cent of global rice exports and removed its last remaining rice export restrictions in March 2025.
Strong wheat procurement boosts reserves
Market participants said the government’s wheat procurement exceeded expectations this year. Reuters reported that India procured around 35 million tonnes of wheat, leaving authorities in a comfortable position to increase open market sales if required to curb food inflation later in the year.“The government surprised the market by procuring 35 million tons of wheat. It is now in a comfortable position and can release stocks aggressively into the market to keep prices in check,” a Mumbai-based dealer told Reuters.India’s rice and wheat production touched record levels in the 2025-26 crop year, reaching 154.02 million tonnes and 120.66 million tonnes respectively, aided by favourable monsoon conditions and expanded acreage.
FAO warns of monsoon risks
However, concerns remain over the impact of El Nino on the upcoming kharif season. The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has warned that the newly established El Nino phase could weaken India’s summer monsoon and put rainfed crops such as rice and maize under stress.“In Asia, the risk extends beyond fields to global markets. El Niño can weaken the summer monsoon across much of India, putting rainfed crops such as rice and maize under stress during the critical growing season,” the FAO said.The agency noted that agricultural drought risks extend across South and Southeast Asia and warned that food security and farming livelihoods could be affected if rainfall falls short during the crucial sowing period.Despite those concerns, India’s current stock levels provide a significant buffer against potential supply disruptions and price volatility in the months ahead.
