Despite improvement in rainfall in early July, till July 10, farmers had sown kharif crops on 350.85 lakh hectares of land, about 16% less than the same period last year. The gap had narrowed from a 21% deficit a week ago, but monsoon activity has weakened again, leaving the rainfall deficit across the country at 18% as of Monday.
As the data shows, India’s agricultural calendar is determined not by farmers but by clouds.
When the south-west monsoon arrives late, or delivers the wrong amount of rain at the wrong time, the entire kharif season – one of the two major crop cycles most exposed to rain – is thrown into disarray.
Also read: What does an El Nino year mean for India’s monsoon?
kharif crops
The word “kharif” comes from the Arabic for “autumn”. It made its way into Indian agricultural terminology through the Mughals, who used the term to describe crops sown at the beginning of the monsoon and harvested during autumn.
Sowing generally lasts from June to July and harvesting from September to October, although the time frame varies by region. In Kerala, sowing may begin as early as May, and in parts of North India it may extend till July.
The main Kharif crops are paddy (rice), maize, cotton, soybean, groundnut, millet, jowar, and pulses like pigeon pea (arhar), green gram (moong) and black gram (urad). They support India’s food security, rural income and many downstream industries through cotton and oilseeds.
These crops require warm, humid conditions for germination and initial growth and dry, sunny weather for maturity and harvesting. Both parts should fall into place. Too much rain, too little or rain at the wrong time can ruin the entire cycle.
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Why does timely rainfall matter?
Kharif sowing is done at the time of first adequate rainfall of south-west monsoon. The seeds are placed in the soil in the hope that rainfall will soon create the moisture needed for germination, root establishment and the early vegetative stage.
An article published this month by the National Academy of Agricultural Research Management (NAARM) said any delay in the onset of monsoon postpones sowing, effectively shortening the growing season and exposing crops to moisture stress during critical stages of growth.
This is why data on seasonal averages alone can be misleading.
Former Agriculture Secretary Devesh Chaturvedi as told ht“For many crops, a spell of rain is required, which can bring moisture to the soil before sowing, and then some intermittent rains. Even districts that remain deficient will do well as a result.”
In contrast, districts that receive their full quota in one or two peak periods may still fail to germinate and have nutrients washed away, as excessive rainfall can leach nutrients and fertilizers from the soil before plants can use them.
Vulnerabilities are also crop-specific. In rice, the major kharif crop, low rainfall affects nursery establishment, transplantation, tillering, flowering and grain filling, and when drought occurs at flowering, yield losses are greatest. Due to lack of moisture, there is difficulty in seed formation in oilseeds; The development of flowers and pods in pulses is weak. As the NAARM paper notes, cotton plants become stunted, leading to reduced boll formation, reduced ear development in rain-fed corn, and reduced grain filling in millets.
El Nino and July rains
This year’s monsoon is full of danger El Nino. El Niño–Southern Oscillation is a phenomenon marked by the warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This could weaken the atmospheric circulation, which drives India’s southwest monsoon and is linked to some of the country’s drought years.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) formally announced on June 11 that El Niño had arrived. Earlier, the IMD had forecast monsoon rainfall at 90% of the long period average, with a 60% chance of below normal rainfall.
The south-west monsoon lagged in June, the fifth driest monsoon in more than a century, with only 99.5 mm of rainfall recorded – a deficit compared to 2014, when El Nino conditions pressured the monsoon and damaged agricultural output.
But there was a slight recovery in the monsoon in July, allowing the system to reach the entire country and the rainfall deficit reduced from 40% at the end of June to 18% this week.
Research firm CRISIL cautioned that “the fluctuations between shortage and surplus could be as disruptive to agriculture as a weak monsoon, affecting sowing decisions, crop health and ultimately rural incomes”.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast rainfall in July to be 6% below the long period average, meaning the second half of the month could be quite dry.
The IMD has already warned of scanty rainfall over north-western plains, west-central India and south Peninsular India for the next six to seven days. Many key agricultural areas such as eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Punjab, parts of Gujarat, Maharashtra, Telangana and Karnataka recorded rainfall deficit of more than 20% till Monday, while some areas received up to 47% deficient rainfall.
on the ground
Sowing data reflects losses on the ground.
Area under pulses (sown area) stood at 2.3 million hectares as of July 10, down 23.3% year-on-year. Oilseeds declined 21% to 7.1 million hectares, coarse grains declined 22.5% to 5.3 million hectares and cotton declined 15.3% to 9.2 million hectares.
Rice was the only major grain to show signs of improvement at 4.8 million hectares, still 8.6% below last year but **17.3% above normal for the date following better rainfall in eastern India.**
This pattern reflects how uneven irrigation coverage is across the country, and rain-fed crops are the first to suffer the shock.
Economist Ramesh Chand points out that “About three-fourths of the area under rice is irrigated, compared to barely 9% for soybean. The acreage numbers reflect this difference. The same relationship is true for pulses as well.”
Garima Jain, chief executive officer of Torque Commodities, which specializes in trading in oilseeds, grains, spices and other resources, said scant rainfall since July 8 in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Gujarat has already started raising temperatures and reducing soil moisture. “Based on the prevailing conditions, we can say with confidence that the area under pulses, millets and oilseeds is likely to decline. The major concern is the forecast of rain for the next seven to 10 days,” he said.
Using its low rainfall impact parameter – which combines rainfall deficiency with irrigation coverage – CRISIL identified Karnataka, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana as among the states facing significant agricultural stress.
It said the pressure on pigeon pea and coarse cereals was greatest, while well-irrigated sugarcane and relatively resilient soybean and groundnut crops were less affected.
The geography of concern is further narrowed down to what meteorologists call the monsoon core zone – an area stretching from Gujarat through central India to West Bengal, which is home to a large part of India’s rain-fed agriculture. It is a stronghold for soybean, pulses and millets, and prolonged drought during peak planting times can reduce acreage and yield losses later in the season.
Also read: Heavy rains impact infrastructure across India
Late rain can’t come to the rescue
When it comes to kharif crops, a wet August or September cannot compensate for a dry June or July.
Kharif crops require dry, sunny weather to mature and be harvested. Late rainfall after flowering or pod setting cannot reverse early damage; They can only add to it.
Since the crop is harvested in the last phase of monsoon, the produce is more vulnerable during storage. Grains and pulses need to be thoroughly dried before storage to prevent fungal growth, and rainfall during or immediately after harvest increases the risk of spoilage and post-harvest losses.
That double bind – rain in June and July, and clear skies through September and October – is what makes the timing of the monsoon, not just its quantity, a crucial factor for the kharif season. As Crisil said, “Abundant rains have brought relief, but whether they convey a message of continued blessings or merely indicate a brief respite remains a question that only the coming weeks can answer.”
