The gradual normalisation of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has eased immediate concerns over India’s fertiliser supplies, but executives in India’s fertiliser industry say August is when it will become clear whether India has successfully avoided the crisis — for that’s when companies will start placing import orders that will determine fertiliser availability for the Rabi (winter crop) sowing season.
“If you’re sourcing from West Asia for Rabi, contracts ideally need to be placed by the first week of August,” said Sanjiv Kanwar, managing director, Yara South Asia, a global agri-inputs company. “That gives enough time for vessels to be booked and cargoes to arrive before demand picks up.”
India’s fertiliser requirement for the financial year 2026–27 is projected to reach approximately 39 million tonnes of urea, 8.5 to 8.8 million tonnes of di-ammonium phosphate (DAP), 14 million tonnes of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium (NPK) fertilisers, and about 2.2 million tonnes of muriate of potash (MOP), according to industry estimates. India produces roughly 75% of its urea, 45% of its DAP, and 50% of its NPK fertiliser requirements, while its MOP supply is entirely dependent on imports.
The country also imports liquefied natural gas (LNG), the principal feedstock for urea production, making the Strait of Hormuz a critical trade route for the sector. West Asia accounts for roughly half of India’s imports of urea and diammonium phosphate.
The war in West Asia, which started on February 28 with the US and Israel attacking Iran, resulted in a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint through which about 20% of India’s total imports pass. Nearly 70% of India’s urea imports come from Gulf countries, including Oman, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, with virtually all shipments transiting the strait. Nearly 60% of India’s LNG imports also pass through the strait and any disruption could hit domestic urea production, which uses natural gas as its main raw material.
But India may have seen a hit of only 500,000 tonnes of urea production during the disruption, Kanwar claimed. He added that the loss is expected to be largely recovered over the coming months as plants have resumed full-capacity operations. “We have a very efficient production system. Most plants are now running at full capacity and a significant part of the lost production can be made up,” he said. At the same time, the government moved quickly to bridge potential shortages by stepping up imports.
According to Kanwar, India has already contracted over five million tonnes of imported urea this year against an estimated import requirement of around eight million tonnes. Unlike previous years, much of these purchases have come from suppliers outside West Asia
“Very little is now coming from West Asia,” he said. “Russia has stepped in a big way. We have also diversified to Africa and new vendors.”
But the real test will come in August which marks the beginning of fertiliser procurement for the winter crop, with import contracts needing to be signed in advance to allow suppliers to allocate cargoes, arrange vessels and ensure shipments reach Indian ports before demand picks up from October.
