The process of change of power in Karnataka has finally started. Siddaramaiah has resigned from the post of Chief Minister, taking the first formal step towards the much-awaited change of power in the state.Standing shoulder to shoulder with DK shivkumar And Karnataka Home Minister G Parameshwara In a major show of unity, Siddaramaiah announced his resignation on Thursday, ending months of speculation over a change of leadership in the state.Announcing his resignation, Siddaramaiah said he was stepping down after the Congress high command directed him to do so two days ago.
What did Siddaramaiah say while announcing his resignation?
DK Shivakumar is set to get the top post eventually, unless Siddaramaiah and his supporters have a “last-minute surprise comeback plan”.In the breakfast meeting called by the Chief Minister before leaving the post, both the leaders gave a good display of cordiality by hugging each other. Shivakumar touched Siddaramaiah’s feet to seek the blessings of the senior leader. So far all is good.
Bonhomie at the breakfast meeting
But the big question is, has the Congress ‘drama’ finally ended in Karnataka? Or will the struggle for power continue in Karnataka? Rajasthan Where did Congress lose power to BJP in 2023 amid infighting between Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot camps?
the bumpy road to armistice
The fact that the process of this ceasefire agreement has been full of ups and downs may cause considerable concern to the central leadership of the Congress. The power struggle between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar hangs over the Congress government like the sword of Damocles, ever since the party’s landslide victory in the 2023 assembly elections.DK Shivakumar, who played a key role in the 2023 election victory as state Congress president, wanted the chief minister’s chair from the beginning. However, Siddaramaiah, armed with immense governance experience and having the support of a clear majority of newly elected MLAs, was in no mood to accept defeat. After an intense post-result standoff, during which Shivakumar aggressively remained in touch, a compromise was eventually reached. Shivkumar bowed down and accepted the post of Deputy CM.
Karnataka power struggle: timeline
This was armistice agreement number 1. Siddaramaiah got the throne and Shivakumar made a compromise.However, this initial ceasefire did absolutely nothing to end factional fighting. While Shivakumar’s supporters left no opportunity to claim that a strict 2.5-year rotational system was in place, Siddaramaiah’s supporters contested the claim with all their might. In fact, Siddaramaiah himself has repeatedly and publicly said on several occasions that he will complete his five-year term.All the while, the Congress high command looked the other way, choosing to allow these fundamental differences to fester until they inevitably reached a tipping point.And that turning point came when Siddaramaiah completed his two and a half year tenure as Chief Minister. The simmering tensions came to the fore again. Shivakumar made the idea of rotational CM public for the first time and targeted Siddaramaiah for reneging on the deal. He did not take names directly but the message was loud and clear. After this, there was an open war of words between the two leaders, due to which the Congress leadership had to face embarrassment.Shivakumar started the duel on X with a cryptic message: “Word power is world power. The greatest power in the world is to keep your word. Be it a judge, the President or anyone else including me, everyone has to obey. The power of words is world power.”Siddaramaiah immediately reacted and used the same words to target his deputy. “A word is not power unless it makes the world better for the people. The mandate given by the people of Karnataka is not a moment, but a responsibility that lasts for five full years. The Congress Party, including me, is speaking for our people with compassion, consistency and courage. Siddaramaiah wrote on Twitter, ‘Our word for Karnataka is not a slogan, it means the world to us.Siddaramaiah then listed out the promises he had fulfilled in his two terms as chief minister, leading to an open social media “war of words” between the two top leaders of the state.And this brings us to compromise number 2. This time Shivakumar has benefited and Siddaramaiah has had to compromise. But even though the transition process has formally begun, there are signs that the outgoing chief minister has not completely given up the fight.Siddaramaiah had reportedly insisted on calling a Congress Legislature Party (CLP) meeting to formally choose his successor, which was widely seen within the party as an attempt to slow down Shivakumar’s rise.There was also talk in Congress circles that formal CLP elections could potentially project Karnataka Home Minister G Parameshwara as a compromise candidate, especially if a section of MLAs mobilizes behind the senior Dalit leader. Such a development will not only prevent Shivakumar’s rise, but will also give Siddaramaiah an opportunity to take credit from the Congress for facilitating Karnataka’s first Dalit Chief Minister.
DK Shivakumar, Siddaramaiah and G Parameshwara
Central to the Siddaramaiah camp’s argument was the claim that the outgoing chief minister enjoyed overwhelming support within the legislature party. Congress leaders familiar with the discussions indicated that Siddaramaiah had submitted the list of 108 MLAs to underline his political strength within the party.Siddaramaiah may have agreed to step down, but he is too politically influential within the Karnataka Congress to be easily sidelined. Perhaps this remains the biggest challenge for the Congress high command.Sandeep Shastri, political commentator and vice-president of Nitte University, believes that the Congress delayed the change perhaps more than it should have.“I have been saying for the last six months that change in Karnataka is not a question of ‘if’ but a question of ‘when’,” Shastri said. He argued that if the Congress had worked only on the two-and-a-half-year target, it could have avoided the tension and uncertainty of the last few months.Shastri also suggested that despite stepping down, Siddaramaiah was unlikely to disappear completely from Karnataka politics. “He will remain an important power center in Karnataka and the new chief minister will have to deal with that,” he said.According to Shastri, Shivakumar finally got the post he was promised, but managing the internal dynamics of the Congress and balancing competing interests within the party will remain his biggest challenge going forward.
In a huge show of unity, standing shoulder to shoulder with DK Shivakumar and Karnataka Home Minister G Parameshwara, Siddaramaiah announced his resignation.
However, political commentator Professor Harish Ramaswamy argued that the Congress high command would have acted at the right time to ensure a smooth transition.Ramaswamy said, “The current developments in Karnataka are a timely step taken by the Congress high command, which benefits from the generational change in the party.”He also rejected speculations that the change could weaken the Congress government or automatically benefit the BJP. “Although there may be some deviations, the transition is likely to be smooth,” he said. He said Shivakumar may emerge as a more “innovative” chief minister than many expected.
Rajasthan experience of Congress
The problem for the Congress is that Siddaramaiah is not only a mass leader with a strong support base in the state, but he is also the party’s biggest OBC face in Karnataka. If Siddaramaiah decides to be careless, it could harm Congress’s prospects in the 2028 assembly elections.The Congress will remain cautious over the election results in Rajasthan due to the prolonged leadership battle between its two state stalwarts ahead of the 2023 assembly elections. The crisis there was similar in many ways. Sachin Pilot, as the then Rajasthan Congress chief, had played a key role in the party’s victory in 2018 and was expected to be rewarded with the chief minister’s post. But Ashok Gehlot had both administrative experience and the support of a large section of MLAs. The Congress, as it did in Karnataka in 2023, supported the senior leader and Pilot was asked to wait.After a long wait, Pilot rebelled along with his supporters and a bitter public war broke out between the two camps as the Congress high command struggled to contain the crisis. Reports at the time revealed that Shivkumar and Priyanka Gandhi played a key role in ensuring that Pilot did not leave the party. Pilot then, like Shivakumar now, may have lacked numbers among the MLAs, but he was too important politically for the Congress to ignore.But unlike Pilot, Shivakumar eventually managed to garner the support of the Congress high command, in which Priyanka Gandhi reportedly played a key role. Eventually Congress lost power in Rajasthan and Pilot is still waiting for a bigger role in the state.The Congress high command will hope that the transition in Karnataka is smooth and that the ceasefire lasts till the next assembly elections in 2028.
Challenge ahead…
There were indications that Rahul Gandhi had long been reluctant to replace Siddaramaiah despite pressure from sections within the party who believed a change of leadership could benefit the Congress politically. According to reports, Siddaramaiah told Rahul Gandhi that he has no ambition to enter national politics. However, Rahul is understood to have stressed that he wants the experienced OBC leader to play a bigger role at the national level and strengthen the Congress at the national level.There is a possibility that Siddaramaiah may eventually be sent to the Rajya Sabha. Such a move could potentially bring changes at the national level as well, with many within the party seeing Siddaramaiah as a potential contender for Leader of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha as the Congress looks to strengthen its OBC reach at the national level.Thus, the challenge for Congress is not just to change the Chief Minister. It is also about maintaining harmony between the two power centres, balancing caste equations and regional loyalties and ensuring that the roadmap for the 2028 election battle in Karnataka does not remain bumpy.
