Following internal turmoil in the two major opposition parties in the two states – former West Bengal Chief Minister-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) and Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (Shiv Sena-UBT) in Maharashtra, there is now speculation of a split in the Samajwadi Party led by former Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav.
Trinamool Congress is in one of the biggest crisis in West Bengal after losing to BJP in the recent assembly elections. The party is facing a dual challenge – rebellion by MLAs in the state assembly and rebellion by MPs in Parliament.
In Maharashtra, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT)) is also grappling with speculations of partition as ‘Operation Tiger’ gains momentum. Operation Tiger is the name given to the alleged efforts by the Shiv Sena and the Eknath Shinde faction of the Bharatiya Janata Party to woo the elected representatives of the Sena (UBT).
SP is now controlling the fire of divisive speculation Big claim of Uttar Pradesh minister And the Samajwadi Party leadership, including Akhilesh Yadav himself, ruined them.
Where does the speculation about SP split begin?
Amid turmoil in West Bengal’s Trinamool Congress and talk of a split in Maharashtra’s Shiv Sena (UBT), speculation about a possible split in former Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP) came to the fore on Wednesday, when state minister and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party chief OP Rajbhar claimed that the opposition party may face a mass exodus.
In a cryptic post on X, Rajbhar alleged that senior SP leader Ram Gopal Yadav had approached the Center amid growing pressure over alleged corruption cases and claimed that several party leaders were preparing to switch sides.
The post in Hindi said, “There is going to be a big split in the Samajwadi Party. Ram Gopal Yadav has submitted a letter to Union Home Minister Amit Shah ji. Everyone in Uttar Pradesh knows who is the mastermind behind the mining scam and Gomti River Front scam. As the screws are tightening, SP is getting worried.”
Rajbhar said in the post, forget Maharashtra and Bengal – the entire SP is ready to join BJP.
Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya on Wednesday claimed that 25 to 26 Samajwadi Party MPs are ready to leave the party before the 2027 assembly elections, while denying that the BJP is trying to encourage any defection.
Speaking to reporters in Kanpur, Maurya denied that the BJP was attempting to split the Samajwadi Party (SP), saying, “We are not breaking them; they will split on their own by 2027.” He criticized SP chief Akhilesh Yadav, suggesting that the party is no longer managed by his inner circle.
Addressing reports of political instability, Maurya blamed “dynastic politics, corruption and criminality” for internal unrest in opposition parties, arguing that the responsibility for any resulting fractures lies with those parties, not the BJP.
What did Samajwadi Party say
The Samajwadi Party leadership, including supremo Akhilesh Yadav, rejected the claims but acknowledged the need for a brave challenge to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is tipping the political scales with defections in the opposition parties.
Addressing the media at the SP headquarters in Lucknow, Yadav said, “SP is united. It has faced many ups and downs in its journey. It is a strong party, and it will remain strong. Our people are brave.”
He accused the BJP of having a long history of causing defection in opposition parties through inducement, fear and pressure.
“If you look at Uttar Pradesh, many SP MLAs, MLCs and even Rajya Sabha members were bought. There might have been some selfishness, some greed or some fear. Those who get scared leave their party.” First HT report quoted Yadav as saying.
The former Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh stressed that taking on the BJP requires courage and conviction.
He said, “If BJP has to be challenged, there should be a team of brave people.”
Recalling his earlier statements, Yadav said he had no intention of creating a split in the BJP, but warned that some MLAs of the ruling party in Uttar Pradesh have shown signs of dissatisfaction and may switch sides at the appropriate time.
Later in a veiled attack on Rajbhar without naming him, Akhilesh Yadav wrote on
OP Rajbhar has shared several posts on X since his first claim, with the latest post warning Akhilesh Yadav of what he described as a “whole bundle of files”.
“Where is the mining and Gomti River Front money being wasted? This fact is known not only to Dimple, Ram Gopal Yadav and Akhilesh Yadav, but also to Om Prakash Rajbhar,” the UP minister said in a post on Thursday.
“If a revelation has left you in this state, I’ve got the entire bundle of files right here. Why are you trembling, Akhilesh? As soon as you open your eyes, they’ll call you Ballia, right?” Rajbhar added in his cryptic post.
Buzz of early elections in UP
The murmurs of rebellion in the Samajwadi Party come amid speculation over the possibility of early Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections and the focus also on the biennial elections for 10 Rajya Sabha seats and 21 Legislative Council seats due to fall vacant later this year and early 2027.
The tenure of 10 Rajya Sabha members from Uttar Pradesh is ending on November 25. Eight of them are from BJP – Brij Lal, Dinesh Sharma, Geeta Shakya, Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri, Seema Dwivedi, Neeraj Shekhar, Arun Singh and BL Verma. The remaining two are Ram Gopal Yadav of Samajwadi Party (SP) and Ramji Lal Gautam of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). Rajya Sabha members are elected by the members of the state assembly.
In the 403-member Uttar Pradesh Assembly, the BJP-led alliance has 290 MLAs. SP has 102 MLAs, Congress has two, BSP has one and Jansatta Dal Loktantrik has two MLAs. Three MLAs are unattached.
Given its numerical strength, the BJP is well placed to increase its representation in the Rajya Sabha, while the BSP will lose its sole presence in the Upper House after Gautam’s term ends.
Political observers cited in a First The HT report believes that the BJP would prefer to hold the Rajya Sabha elections before the Assembly elections. Such a move could help boost cadre morale by increasing the party’s strength in the Upper House and provide an opportunity to accommodate leaders from different caste groups, including OBCs and Dalits, in an effort to counter the SP’s PDA (backward, Dalit, Minority) formula.
In the February 2024 Rajya Sabha elections, the BJP secured eight seats – one more than expected – after some SP MLAs allegedly cross-voted in its favour. Observers believe that the party may try similar tactics again to weaken the SP’s position ahead of the assembly elections.
The HT report quoted a senior BJP leader as saying that biennial elections for the 10 Rajya Sabha seats are likely to be held in October, with successful candidates taking oath after the sitting members complete their tenure at the end of November.
The leader said that the elections to the Upper House have previously been held two to three months before the end of the tenure of the sitting members.
It is believed that BJP is also in favor of holding Legislative Council elections before the Assembly elections. The move could help give momentum to her campaign, increase her numbers in the council and provide representation to leaders of different castes and social groups through the Legislative Council.
The tenure of 11 members elected from graduate and teacher constituencies will end on December 6. These are Avnish Kumar Singh, Ashutosh Sinha, Man Singh Yadav, Manvendra Pratap Singh, Dinesh Kumar Goyal, Hari Singh Dhillon, Umesh Dwivedi, Dhruv Kumar Tripathi, Lal Bihari Yadav, Srichand Sharma and Akash Agarwal.
The tenure of the other 10 council members will end on January 30, 2027. These include Kunwar Manvendra Singh, Dharmendra Singh, Swatantra Singh, Arvind Kumar Sharma, Ashwani Tyagi, Govind Narayan, Dharamvir Prajapati, Salil Vishnoi and Surendra Chaudhary.
In the 100-member Legislative Council, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has 83 seats, including 79 BJP MLCs. SP has 10 members in the House.
What did EC say on early elections in UP?
Officials in the office of the Chief Electoral Officer of Uttar Pradesh said that they have not received any information from the Election Commission of India regarding the premature assembly elections. However, he said that if such a decision is taken then the election machinery will be prepared, especially keeping in mind the second phase of census work – which will also include population and caste enumeration – to be held in February 2027.
“If assembly elections are held in February 2027, government employees from the same pool will have to be deployed for both election and census work, leading to a possible shortage of personnel,” an official was quoted as saying.
Uttar Pradesh has 133.9 million (13.39 crore) voters after 20.4 million (2.04 crore) names were removed from the final voter list published by the Election Commission of India following the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise. The ECI is currently updating the rolls with the enrollment of new voters.
SP leader Rajendra Chaudhary said that his party is ready for early elections and efforts to strengthen the organization from the state level to individual booths are nearing completion.
BSP chief Mayawati has already directed party leaders to start preparations for the assembly elections, saying the assembly elections could be held in January.
