Operators of truck fleets across India are bracing for fuel rationing and the first significant increase in diesel prices in years, a move that would end a period of relative stability that has continued even into a war in the Persian Gulf.
The world’s third-largest oil importer is among the countries most exposed to the trade upheaval in West Asia as the conflict extends into an eighth week—but it has not faced the widespread price hikes at the pump seen elsewhere, as the government shields consumers and state-run refiners absorb losses.
That may be about to change, once key regional elections wrap up next week, as pressure increases and the war drags on. A hike by those government-owned refiners would add to inflationary pressures weighing on the economy. Truck drivers already report widespread informal rationing that forces them to stop more frequently to fill their tanks, delaying deliveries.
“We are going to see an increase in diesel prices after the elections,” said Shailendra Gupta, an executive member at All India Motor Transport Congress, a truckers’ lobby group. “Already nearly 10% of the fleet is idle, if the fuel prices are increased that number could go up to 30%.”
Pumps have withdrawn discounts they used to give earlier on monthly purchases above a certain threshold, he said.
Much of India’s cargo moves around by road—trucks account for nearly 70% of the freight movement—so diesel is the lifeblood of the economy. Private players Nayara Energy Ltd. have already raised pump prices and Reliance Industries Ltd. and its partner BP Plc have rationed supplies. Still, any widespread increase in retail fuel prices, coupled with a weak exchange rate, would feed through to the wider economy.
Ajay Bansal, president of All India Petroleum Dealers Association, said there was currently no rationing at state outlets—though they were feeling the knock—on effect from other restrictions.
“With the private refiners curtailing sales, there has been abnormal spike in demand at pumps of state retail outlets which may have led to dry-outs at some outlets and forcing them to curtail sales,” Bansal said.
The government has urged citizens to avoid panic buying fuel and said on Sunday that retail outlets were operating normally. There was no increase in regular retail prices for petrol or diesel, it added. India has already reduced local taxes on petrol and diesel and raised export levies in order to protect consumers.
Standard Chartered Plc economists led by Anubhuti Sahay said in a report last Friday that if crude averages $95 a barrel in this fiscal year, the government would be forced to raise pump prices by ₹8-15 per litre for petrol and diesel, along with higher cooking gas prices. Even if crude averages $85-$90 a barrel, retail fuel prices may still need to rise by ₹3-7 per litre, they said.
Brent crude was trading around $96 a barrel on Monday. India’s last widespread pump price increase was in 2022.
