One of my colleagues in the press box was saying to me that this match is not a title decider. I suppose he is right however this is arguably the most important match of the season which will influence what happens next and who might win the title.
The fact is City have six more fixtures left and Arsenal have five, there are six points separating the two clubs so if City win this one and also their game in hand, the difference is zero points between them. Fortunately for Arsenal they have a superior goal difference but it is only three which could easily be eroded.
My research points to City being favourites to narrowly win this match however with such a lot at stake it would not surprise me if it ended in a draw.
On paper these two teams are absolutely top level. City have Matheus Nunes, Abdukodir Khusanov, Marc Guehi and Nico O’Reilly in front of world class goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma. O’Reilly has been the outstanding player of the year for City.
Can they contain Gabriel Martinelli and Noni Madueke on the wings? Guardiola believes his players will halt the Arsenal front line. Viktor Gyokeres and Kai Havertz could play well but are they good enough to get past such a strong defence?
In midfield are definitely two of the best in the world. City’s Ballon d’Or winner Rodri takes on the Gunner’s captain Declan Rice. What a match up this should be and Arteta knows how important commanding the centre of the pitch will be and he has spent all available time with Declan marshalling the training sessions, organising and instructing as they take on a very strong City midfield.
At the back Gabriel Magalhaes and William Saliba will attempt to stop the runs of Antoine Semenyo, Rayan Cherki, captain Bernardo Silva and Jeremy Doku. The Belgian’s runs down the left hand side of the field could give Ben White a very challenging afternoon.
Guardiola is likely to start with a 4-1-4-1 formation whilst Arteta will go for 4-2-3-1. This will match up Erling Haaland against Magalhaes and Saliba and the big Swede is in fine form with his powerful 6ft 4in (1.9m) body back to its best now he is fully fit.
One always thinks of Ben White as being the tallest Arsenal defender but in fact he is shorter than Magalhaes, and Saliba.
MANCHESTER CITY VS ARSENAL: TITLE RACE INTENSIFIES
What makes this fixture even more dangerous for Arsenal is not just the quality of Manchester City, but the timing of it.
Just a month ago, Arsenal looked to be cruising towards their first Premier League title in 22 years. City were dropping points, leaking goals, and for once looked vulnerable in a title race that they have made their personal property under Pep Guardiola.
But Arsenal’s surprise 2-1 defeat at home to Bournemouth last weekend changed the complexion of the race completely. City followed that up with a dominant 3-0 win over Chelsea, cutting the gap to six points with a game still in hand.
That changes everything.
If City win on Sunday and then beat relegation-bound Burnley three days later, they would move level on points with Arsenal and potentially go top depending on goal difference. Suddenly, what looked like Arsenal’s title to lose becomes City’s race to control.
That is why this game feels less like a regular league fixture and more like a final.
Guardiola himself admitted as much before the game.
“If they beat us, it’s over,” the City manager said ahead of the clash.
Arsenal know that even a draw at the Etihad would be a strong result. It would keep City at arm’s length and preserve control of the title race. But there is also the psychological scar of what happened the last time the title race truly came down to this stadium.
Three years ago, Arsenal arrived at the Etihad as league leaders, five points clear of City, although having played two more matches. What followed was brutal. City dismantled them 4-1, shattered their confidence, and went on to win the title by five points.
Former Manchester United defender Gary Neville believes that the pressure of chasing a first title creates a different kind of exhaustion.
“You’re going for your first title, you start to become consumed, and it’s the mental and emotional drain that means your legs physically appear tired,” Neville said.
“This is where it gets real. This is the title race now, and they have got to clear their minds somehow and get that emotional balance correct.”
That emotional balance is exactly what Mikel Arteta will be searching for this weekend.
Arsenal are still unbeaten in their last five Premier League matches against City, and their Champions League quarter-final win over Sporting this week should give them confidence. They are no longer the soft side that used to fold under pressure.
But Bournemouth showed that nerves still exist.
The team looked tense, rushed and strangely flat at the Emirates, and against City, that hesitation can be fatal.
There is also the simple fact that April belongs to Guardiola.
Since losing to Leeds United in April 2021, City have won 20 of their 22 Premier League games in this month, drawing the other two. They have made a habit of timing their title charge perfectly, while everyone else starts to feel the weight of the finish line. This season feels no different.
A League Cup final win over Arsenal, an FA Cup demolition of Liverpool, and the recent hammering of Chelsea suggest City are once again peaking at exactly the right time.
At the Etihad, they have not lost a league game to Arsenal in over a decade.
For Arsenal, this is about proving they can finally survive the place where so many title dreams have ended.
For City, it is about doing what they have done for years – applying pressure until the league bends in their direction.
If Arsenal leave Manchester with a result, they remain favourites.
If City win, the title race changes shape entirely.
And in April, very few teams know how to weaponise pressure better than Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City.
– Ends
