New Delhi: The Congress Crisis is looming in Punjab. Is this any surprise? well not really! It is the same old story of infighting and power struggle among state leaders that has played out several times for the Congress in many states over the last decade.Remember Rajasthan, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and yes, Punjab too ahead of the 2022 assembly elections. Each of these states had the same story unfolding in much the same pattern.step 1:Crisis build-up – power struggle between state leaders.step 2: Incubation period – a evasive Congress high command preferring to look the other waystep 3:Cosmetic actions – verbal warnings and test panels to detect obvious and delayed true actionstep 4: rebellion – delay or sometimes no meaningful intervention in inciting a faction to rebelStep 5: Defection – Dissatisfied leaders leaving the party has become easier for the leadership as they are no longer required to take actionStep 6:Election defeat – and finally, defeat in the electionWell, this may read harsh. But this is close to the truth. Analyze the crisis in each of the states mentioned above and you will find that this pattern is coming into effect step by step – perhaps with some variations. In most of these states, the reluctance of the Congress high command to intervene decisively at the right time allowed the leadership struggle to escalate into a full-blown crisis.
Same script, different situation
punjab crisis
Now let us look at the crisis brewing in Punjab.about 10 days ago, Rahul Gandhi – Congress’s “fate maker” – interacted with leaders in Punjab. This is what he said: “You have to fight collectively, Punjab is an important state, and we have a great opportunity…”Some questions: What has Congress done to ensure that its leaders fight unitedly in Punjab? What groundwork has the party done since its last defeat in the state to claim that it has a very good chance?Now, either Rahul Gandhi was not briefed about the actual ground situation in poll-bound Punjab or he was deliberately ignoring the obvious and making hot-talk.Whatever the reason, the cracks in Punjab Congress have now come to the fore. And only one decision of the high command was taken to give rise to this crisis. The irony is that on a closer look you realize that even in this decision, which was probably taken with a delay of more than four years, there was no possibility of any change and the focus was on maintaining the status quo in the state.
congress crisis
The decision came four years late?
Well, in 2022 itself, Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP had wiped out Congress in Punjab. The grand old party dropped from 77 to 18, while AAP went from 20 to 95. It tells the story of the 2022 elections.The Congress had four long years to reshuffle the state organization and give the new leadership time to prepare for the 2027 elections. Disagreements, if any, would have been resolved with time. But yet we all know that Congress does not believe in the old saying: “A stitch in time saves nine.” So, nothing happened until the next election knocked at the door.And when the leadership finally focused on Punjab – it led to a crisis. The fact that the decision was to “maintain the status quo” meant that state leaders who were expecting a major role were disappointed.Senior leader Manish Tewari, who was not assigned any role in the reshuffle, raised the first voice of dissent with a cryptic note on Twitter in which he wished he had an antidote to the “insecurities of individuals” and “institutions”. He is followed by former chief minister and compromise 2022 candidate Charanjit Singh Channi – who led the Congress to its historic defeat five years ago. Channi, who had lost both the assembly seats he contested at that time, is unhappy with the leadership after being ignored for the post of state president. Chaney was appointed as chairman of the campaign committee, but in a subtle disagreement the traditional thanks for leadership were not given to him. Several important leaders from the state attended the meeting called by an “unhappy” Channi to discuss the leadership issue, raising questions over the Congress’s decision to continue with Amarinder Singh Raja Warringah as the state party chief.BJP immediately took a dig at Congress. Union minister Ravneet Singh Bittu, a former Congressman (remember Rahul Gandhi’s traitor jibe that created a storm) who joined the BJP in 2024, took a dig at Waring. Bittu remembered a famous scene from Sholay. Comparing Asrani with the iconic jailer, whose entire contingent moves forward with orders of “right, left” while he is left standing alone, Ravneet Singh said a similar situation has emerged in the Punjab Congress, where Raja Warringah has been retained in the top post.He said that almost the entire team of Raja Warringah has moved towards Charanjit Channi, leaving the state Congress chief isolated. In a cheeky comment, Bittu advised Waring to stop resisting the inevitable, join the “Channi wagon” and go to Channi’s residence with the rest of his colleagues.
Results of 2022 assembly elections in Punjab.
Does Congress, divided into factions, have any chance in Punjab?
Well, theoretically “yes”, but practically “no.”Punjab has traditionally been one of the best bets for the Congress over the past few years. The Congress has won five of the 13 assembly elections between 1966 and 2022 and has given the maximum number of chief ministers to the state as a party.For years the Akali remained the only challenger, with the grand old party returning to power in the state despite controversies and infighting. Even the scars of 1984 – Operation Blue Star and the anti-Sikh killings – did not cause lasting damage to the party’s electoral prospects.Not anymore. The 2022 assembly elections changed the blueprint. When Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP swept the state by winning 95 seats in the 117-member assembly, it marked the end of a political monopoly in the state. The magnitude of AAP’s victory shocked not only political observers but also the Congress and Akalis, who were anyway on the decline after parting ways with the BJP.Unfortunately for the Congress, this time there is also a very aggressive BJP which has already shown its intention for the 2027 election battle. The BJP, which had “acquired” several Congress leaders in 2022, has now roped in several more AAP MPs. Once a trusted aide of Kejriwal and one of the architects of Punjab’s 2022 victory, Raghav Chadha is now in the BJP along with 6 other party MPs – all from the Rajya Sabha. As the elections are approaching, for obvious reasons many people from both the Congress and AAP may want to switch sides. BJP president Nitin Nabin recently took a three-day visit to the state to motivate party workers and give a statement of intent.
Punjab Congress – A timeline from 2022
too little too late
And now, let’s see what Congress did to set its house in order after the 2022 debacle. Well, actually nothing. It waited too long for four years and made little effort to resolve the core issues that may have contributed to the party’s poor performance.Ahead of the 2022 assembly elections, while AAP was showcasing its Delhi governance model and convincing voters to give Kejriwal’s party a chance, the Congress was busy prolonging the leadership battle in the state. Captain Amarinder Singh and cricketer-turned-politician Navjot Singh Sidhu are embroiled in a power struggle. As soon as both of them made open statements, Congress discovered a leader in Channi – a Dalit leader – and gave him the reins. Final result: Congress lost both Amarinder Singh and Sidhu and Channi lost Punjab.The irony is that Congress did not learn a lesson from the 2022 defeat and is facing exactly the same situation today. Congress does not have any mass leader in Punjab who can match the popularity of AAP’s Bhagwant Singh Mann. Kejriwal has already declared Mann as the chief ministerial face of the party. Congress leaders say they will fight punjab assembly elections Under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge. While this is not surprising, it does mean that the Congress will help the BJP in making the Punjab elections a Modi versus Rahul affair once again. And we all know who has had the upper hand in all such direct contests in the last decade.So, the question is, has Congress missed the mark in Punjab? Well, one has to wait and see if the people of Punjab are ready for another term of Congress rule in the state despite all these odds.






