On May 2, 2021, Rahul Gandhi congratulated Mamata Banerjee and the people of West Bengal for “defeating her brilliantly”. BJP““I am happy to congratulate Mamata ji and the people of West Bengal for thoroughly defeating BJP,” he wrote on Twitter (now called X).However, the irony was hard to ignore. While the BJP was virtually kept out of power, it recorded its strongest-ever performance in the state – winning 77 seats, up from only three in 2016 – and firmly established itself as the major challenger to the TMC.

CongressOn the contrary, failed to open your account.Five years later, with Banerjee seeking a fourth consecutive term and the BJP eyeing its first government in West Bengal, the Congress finds itself out of the race and in a no-win situation: Mamata’s victory could put her as the opposition’s frontrunner for prime ministerial post in 2029, while a BJP victory would add a major state to its kitty and further strengthen its momentum ahead of the general elections.Which of the two outcomes would the oldest party prefer?

Rise of Mamata Banerjee

Banerjee, a former Congress leader, founded the TMC in January 1998, and the party has since been part of governments led by both the Congress and the BJP at the Centre. Now a frequent ally of the Congress, she ended the Left Front’s 34-year rule in West Bengal in 2011 and won two more terms, establishing herself as one of India’s most formidable regional leaders.

After a setback in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, when the BJP won 18 of the 42 constituencies in West Bengal, Banerjee made a strong comeback just two years later, leading the Trinamool to a third consecutive victory.Despite an aggressive BJP campaign led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, TMC’s chances of victory, coupled with Banerjee’s decision to field her former ally Suvendu Adhikari in her stronghold – where she lost by a slim margin – have tarnished her credibility.

A fourth term would firmly position him to be the opposition’s prime ministerial face for 2029.

Rise of BJP as major challenger to TMC

The BJP did not have immediate success in West Bengal after Modi became Prime Minister in May 2014, winning only two Lok Sabha seats that year and only three constituencies in the assembly elections two years later.This changed in 2019, when it won 303 Lok Sabha seats, including 18 in West Bengal.In 2021, although the BJP fell far short of its target of 200 seats, it emerged as the main challenger to TMC.

Even at the national level, despite not enjoying a majority of its own, the saffron party, with 240 Lok Sabha MPs – more than the combined opposition – remains on course for a fourth term, reinforcing the perception of continued national dominance.

Decline of Congress in West Bengal and beyond

In February, the Congress unilaterally ended its alliance with the Left Front and announced that it would contest the elections alone in West Bengal. Despite its rich political history, the party has not had a chief minister in the state since 1977, when its three-decade tenure in power in 1947 ended.

Its dominance in the Lok Sabha has been more limited than in West Bengal. The last time Congress reached double digits in the state was in 1984, when it won 16 seats as part of a nationwide sweep of 414 seats.Since then, the Congress has not achieved a majority on its own at the Centre. In the last three Lok Sabha elections it failed to cross the 100 seats mark. It is currently in power only in three states – Karnataka, Telangana and Himachal Pradesh. Congress’s removal of Mamata’s staunch critic Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury from the post of its Bengal unit chief was also seen by many as the party’s “surrender” to the TMC supremo. Chaudhary has held the Baharampur Lok Sabha seat continuously since 1999 – where Muslims constitute almost half the population. In the 2024 general elections, Banerjee nominated former cricketer Yusuf Pathan, a Gujarat native, who ousted Chaudhary from the post.

Congress’s Rahul dilemma: Can’t win with him, can’t win without him

The Congress fought the 2014, 2019 and 2024 general elections under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi, although without formally projecting him as the prime ministerial face. Under his direct leadership as party president and on the heels of assembly victories in three Hindi-speaking states in December 2018, the 2019 defeat was harsh in both magnitude and context. Although he resigned as party chief in July 2019, Gandhi remains the party’s most prominent face and key decision-maker.

The 2024 resurgence of the Congress, as well as the broader opposition, was widely credited to Gandhi’s two “Join India” all-India marches, which many believe led to a significant change in public perception of him. He was later made the leader of the opposition for the first time since 2014.

However, after this a series of electoral upsets started in the state assembly elections. He later accused the Election Commission of irregularities, accused it of bias towards the BJP, and held several press conferences on the issue, but the failures continued.What hurts Gandhi, according to political observers, is that he has never held public office – even when his own party was in power from 2004 to 2014 – coupled with the poor electoral record of the Congress under him, his frequent foreign trips, and his tendency to stick to issues even when failing to connect with voters – raising persistent questions about his effectiveness as a national challenger.

Question of leadership within the Indian faction

The India Bloc, formed in July 2023, brought together several regional parties opposed to the Congress and the BJP under one umbrella. As the de facto base of the grand old party, the alliance avoided projecting a prime ministerial face, and managed to bring the BJP below the majority mark.Nevertheless, the question of leadership persisted, especially after the Congress’s consecutive defeats in state elections after the general elections.In December 2024, following the defeat of the Maha Vikas Aghadi in Maharashtra – of which the Congress is a constituent, Banerjee expressed her desire to lead the India Group and senior leaders like Lalu Prasad Yadav and Sharad Pawar immediately supported her.

On its part, the Congress has repeatedly refrained from supporting Banerjee, instead stressing the need to keep the alliance united. This also includes party chief Mallikarjun Kharge, whose name was proposed by both Banerjee and AAP’s Arvind Kejriwal as their prime ministerial candidate in December 2023.

Gandhi has consistently ignored suggestions that he should be projected as a contender, instead stressing the need to remain united to “save democracy” in what he repeatedly describes as an “ideological battle”.

However, in February, senior Congress leader Mani Shankar Aiyar clearly supported Banerjee and called her “the leader of the alliance”. He also said that the India Bloc “belongs to small parties” and that Gandhi should “let them handle it.”

This, in turn, brings into focus the question of leadership within the Indian bloc.

What does the Bengals mean to each player?

Both TMC and BJP are working hard to win West Bengal, motivated by their own different reasons. For Trinamool, retaining the state is important as it has little presence beyond it. A defeat may not end Banerjee’s political career, but it would significantly damage her national ambitions.

The BJP’s objectives are both ideological and politico-ideological as its predecessor, Bharatiya Jan Sangh founder Syama Prasad Mukherjee, was born here; And political because a victory would mark a major expansion of its footprint and strengthen its position ahead of the 2029 elections.

For the Congress, which is largely out of the race, the contest offers an opportunity to recalibrate and improve its position in the state, but does little to change the bigger picture.

A state contest, a national question for Congress

Congress’s current leave from power at the Center is its longest ever and the first to last for a decade or more. Yet she remains the only national alternative to the BJP.Still, West Bengal presents a unique dilemma for the Congress – it will either further strengthen its national rival’s prospects for 2029 or give a regional rival the platform to position itself for a larger, national role.Voting will be held in two phases for 294 assembly seats in the state. In the first phase, voting will be held on 152 seats on Thursday, while the remaining 142 seats will be voted on April 29, the counting of which will take place on May 4.

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