Keir Starmer resigned as British prime minister on Monday, and within hours Reform UK leader Nigel Farage called a general election. Farage said he had “waited enough” and that Britain “needs real change, not another charade pushed through one party”.
Farage cannot force that election – under British law, Labor is not required to go to an election until 2029 – but his response sharpened the central question facing Starmer’s potential successor, former Greater Manchester mayor Andy. burnham. That is, whether a new Labor leader can blunt the rise of a right-wing party that overtook Labor in a YouGov poll of national voting intentions in February 2025 and has led ever since.
US President Donald Trump, whose rise to power is often analyzed as part of a global right-wing surge, considered it before the formal announcement. he mentioned immigration As a cause, Reform UK has also positioned itself on the anti-immigration issue. Starmer’s relationship with Trump had soured in recent months, including over the Iran war Britain did not join.
The immediate reason for Starmer’s departure was Burnham’s victory in last week’s parliamentary by-election in Makerfield, a working-class seat in north-west England targeted by Farage’s party.
According to the AP report, Burnham increased Labor’s share to nearly 55%, reducing the threat of reform by also gaining votes from other left-leaning parties. The seat was vacated by Labour’s Josh Simmons for Burnham to return to parliament and mount a leadership challenge.
Starmer, who spent the weekend considering his future at his country residence, said he had “heard the reply” from his parliamentary party and accepted it “with good grace”.
The rise of the far right in Britain has coincided with an increase in immigration. UK Home Office figures show that despite government measures to tighten conditions for permanent residence, irregular arrivals to the UK are set to exceed 41,000 in 2025, slightly below the record 45,774 set in 2022. The political dividend was visible in the May 2026 local elections, with Reform UK winning around 1,500 seats, many in former Labor strongholds, news agency AFP reports.
The right-wing edge is also divided as to where Reform leads the field, but the broader right is divided on how far to the right to go.
US-based billionaire Elon Musk, once an ally of Farage, publicly broke with him and branded him a “weak sauce that won’t do anything” on immigration. Musk supported Advance UK, a more radical breakaway led by former reform deputy Ben Habib.
Musk also urged voters to support activist Tommy Robinson for “the real change needed to save Britain”. He addressed Robinson’s ‘Unite the Kingdom’ rally in London via video link, where his speech was described as inflammatory and a call for violence against immigrants. Farage, who rejects the “far-right” label, has distanced himself from Robinson.
However, experts read a two-pronged issue for Starmer, not just a right-wing challenge. US-based think tank the Brookings Institution analyzed this as part of a broader European pattern, arguing that economic discontent is punishing incumbents across the ideological spectrum from Hungary’s right-wing nationalists to the left. viktor orban Britain’s centre-left Starmer, regardless of his politics.
The progress of Reform UK is also seen as a result of the fragmentation of the left and liberal parties that are against it. For example, BBC projections in the May 2026 local elections put Reform UK at 26%, the Greens (18), Labor and the Conservatives at 17% and the Liberal Democrats at 16%, splitting the UK anti-reform vote. Labor voters have also moved to the Green Party or Liberal Democrats in large numbers, the analysis said.
Martin Baxter of poll forecaster Electoral Calculus also presented it as a multi-front problem, saying that Labor was facing “double trouble” from Reform on the right and the Greens on the left.
However, a large part of the fallout has been internal, including a dispute over ministers accepting gifts, clothes and tickets, after which Starmer returned donations of around £6,000; wrongly removed winter fuel allowances for 10 million pensioners which was later reversed under pressure from Labour’s more left-wing faction; And a first budget in which Finance Minister Rachel Reeves raised an extra £40 billion, £25 billion of it from higher rates of employers’ national insurance, AFP noted.
One scandal that complicated this was during the time of Peter mandelson Starmer was appointed ambassador to Washington in December 2024 despite knowledge of her relationship with the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. He was fired in September 2025 when new emails revealed the depth of the friendship. Police are now investigating Mandelson for misconduct in public office. Starmer has been floundering ever since.
Defense Secretary John Healey resigned this month, writing that Starmer was unable to commit the resources needed to defend the country at a time of growing threats, and the Treasury was…unwilling.
Britain is seeing a revolving door of prime ministers as its economy grows slowly while debt remains high. Debt interest now reaches almost £100 billion a year – leaving little room for any Prime Minister to spend the money raised from public services.
Political analyst John Harris argued that Starmer’s main failure It was one of identity and “painful lack of clarity”.
Immigration policy is in limbo
Starmer has been wavering on immigration policies. He said in May 2025 that immigration risked turning Britain into an “island of strangers” – an unusually outspoken stance for a Labor leader – but less than two months later he said he deeply regretted the phrase. Harris cited an Ipsos approval rating of -66, which is the lowest of any prime minister in that pollster’s record, including Liz Truss, who served as the shortest-serving prime minister in British history.
On immigration, Labour’s reaction to the right had hardened under Starmer. In late 2025, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood unveiled what was described as the most significant reform of British asylum policy in modern times. They made refugee status temporary and reviewable, and extended the wait for permanent settlement.
Mahmood, the daughter of immigrants from Pakistan and Kashmir, said that dealing with “this problem” does not mean doing “far-right things.” “Illegal immigration is tearing our country apart,” he stressed.
Reform UK’s Farage then said that Mahmood, who was once seen as a possible contender to replace Starmer, “feels as if she is auditioning for Reform”. Even far-right activist Tommy Robinson publicly celebrated his announcement on X.
Andy Burnham, who now remains the only possible contender and could take the post by mid-July, remains unconfirmed for national office, the AP reported on Monday. Olivia O’Sullivan, an analyst at the Chatham House think tank, told the AP that she was the frontrunner because many in Labor saw her as best placed to defeat Reform UK and reconnect with wavering voters. But he cautioned, “This is not the same as offering a completely different set of policies or even a particularly clear policy program.”
Tim Bell, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, said that Burnham was until now “like an imaginary leader, a screen onto which supporters can project their favorite principles”.
Wes Streeting, who stood aside to support her, said Burnham could win “the fight of our lives against the forces of nationalism”, the AP reported.
The shadow of Brexit a decade later, almost to this day
Burnham’s own position has changed, from a call to nationalize industries and rejoining the European Union to a more limited centrist stance. He has acknowledged several times that public finances are too tight for large-scale nationalization, and he has also ruled out any imminent return to the EU.
However, Labor supporters include those who opposed the Conservative Party’s Brexit policies.
On Monday, as Starmer began speaking outside 10 Downing Street, nearby protesters played Beethoven’s ‘Ode to Joy’, the EU anthem. His resignation came nearly a decade after Britain voted to leave the bloc.
Labour’s stance is to improve relations with the EU, not to reverse Brexit. Its 2024 manifesto ruled out rejoining the single market, the customs union or freedom of movement. According to AFP, Streeting and others pressed for further progress, but Starmer resisted and Burnham rejected the idea of rejoining.
Burnham has said at the moment that it is too early to talk about elections.
Nominations to replace Starmer will open on 9 July and close on 16 July, with any contests being decided by 1 September. Burnham stands unopposedThe earliest he could become prime minister is July 17, Britain’s fifth after 2022 and its seventh since the 2016 Brexit referendum.
