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What India can do is progressively utilize a larger portion of the water that the treaty already allows it to use, as well as accelerate projects that were previously moving slowly.
Under the treaty, Pakistan received almost exclusive rights over three western rivers–the Indus, the Jhelum and the Chenab. India retained control over the eastern rivers–Ravi, Beas and Sutlej. (AI-generated image)
Pakistan is once again on target. Defense Minister of the country Khawaja AsifIn another attempt to unsettle India, Islamabad has warned that it may resort to military action if it feels that the country’s water security is under serious threat. The threat comes amid rising tensions after New Delhi suspended the Indus Water Treaty.
Speaking to ARY News, Asif said, “The moment we feel that our national security and water is being threatened, we will go to war against India. Definitely.”
This statement has again attracted attention Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) Which, for more than six decades, was often described as one of the world’s most successful water-sharing agreements. It has survived several India-Pakistan wars, military crises and prolonged diplomatic failures. Even when bilateral relations collapsed, the treaty remained in place.
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However, everything changed after the terrorist attack in Pahalgam in April 2025, in which 26 people were killed. Subsequently, India announced that it was keeping the treaty “in abeyance” until Pakistan takes credible and irreversible action against cross-border terrorism. The decision is the most serious challenge to the treaty since it was signed in 1960.
The move has sparked a wide-ranging debate: What was the treaty designed to achieve? Why does India now consider it outdated? And what consequences could this have on Pakistan?
a treaty born of partition
The genesis of the Indus Water Treaty lies in the anarchy of partition.
When British India was partitioned in 1947, the six rivers of the Indus Basin suddenly began flowing into two newly created countries. While many rivers originated in India, the large irrigation networks built during British rule were located in Pakistan.
The problem emerged almost immediately. In April 1948, India temporarily stopped the flow of water from some canals serving Pakistan, highlighting how vulnerable the new country was to upstream decisions. This dispute soon turned into one of the first major disagreements between India and Pakistan after partition.
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Negotiations lasted for years before the World Bank came in as mediator. The final solution involved dividing the river system rather than sharing individual rivers. This became the foundation of the treaty signed by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan in Karachi on September 19, 1960.
How does the treaty work?
The treaty divided the six rivers of the Indus Basin into two groups.
Pakistan gained almost exclusive rights over the three western rivers – Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. India retained control over the eastern rivers – Ravi, Beas and Sutlej.
From an upstream perspective this allocation was unusually generous. Various official and academic assessments suggest that about 80 percent of the basin’s waters were effectively ceded to Pakistan, while India gained control of the eastern rivers.
India was allowed limited use of western rivers for domestic consumption, irrigation and run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects, but significant restrictions were placed on storage and diversion.
This system ensured predictable water flow to Pakistan’s vast agricultural economy, especially in Punjab and Sindh, where millions of farmers depend on irrigation from the Indus system.
Why was the treaty considered extraordinary?
The prestige of the treaty largely depends on its durability. It survived the wars of 1965, 1971 and 1999, as well as decades of diplomatic hostilities. Even after major terrorist attacks like Mumbai in 2008 and Pulwama in 2019, neither party formally abandoned the agreement.
The treaty also created a permanent institutional mechanism, through the Permanent Indus Commission, to allow technical discussions to continue even if political negotiations broke down.
Why did India start demanding change?
India’s dissatisfaction with the treaty It started much before the Pahalgam attack.
New Delhi has consistently argued that the agreement was drafted under very different circumstances and does not adequately account for current realities such as climate change, changing water needs, clean-energy needs and population growth.
At the UN Human Rights Council this month, India described the treaty as “outdated” and criticized Pakistan for repeatedly obstructing Indian hydropower projects approved through legal and arbitration processes.
Indian officials have argued that Pakistan has used dispute-resolution provisions in ways that delay infrastructure projects rather than resolve technical disagreements. New Delhi has also said that it has never fully utilized the rights it received under the treaty.
In January 2023, India formally informed Pakistan that it wanted to amend the agreement. A second notice followed in 2024, indicating growing frustration with the current structure of the treaty.
How Pahalgam changed the equation
April 2025 attack Turned a long-running policy debate into a national-security issue.
Following the attack, India announced that the treaty would remain in abeyance until Pakistan stopped support for cross-border terrorism. The decision was part of a broader package of measures that directly linked bilateral engagement to security concerns.
The government’s argument was simple: a treaty built on cooperation and goodwill cannot function normally if one party believes it faces constant terrorist threats emanating from the other.
What does ‘in abeyance’ actually mean?
Contrary to some public perceptions, India has not physically stopped rivers from flowing into Pakistan.
The geography of the basin makes immediate cutoff impossible. Existing infrastructure does not allow India to suddenly divert or store the huge volumes of water brought by western rivers.
Instead, the practical implications are more gradual. By suspending the cooperation mechanism, India is no longer recognizing its treaty obligations as fully operational. Officials have suggested that India move more aggressively to maximize its rights to western-river waters through infrastructure development, storage projects and hydropower facilities.
Why is Pakistan worried?
Pakistan’s concerns stem from its extraordinary dependence on the Indus Basin.
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Agriculture contributes significantly to the country’s economy and depends heavily on irrigation supplied by the Indus River system. A large part of Pakistan’s food production, rural employment and water security is directly linked to these rivers.
Experts often describe Pakistan as one of the most water stressed countries in the world. Any reduction in flows, even gradual or seasonal, can have economic consequences.
Therefore, for Islamabad the issue extends beyond diplomacy. It touches on food security, power generation, irrigation planning and long-term economic stability.
This explains why Pakistani officials have reacted strongly to India’s latest situation, describing it as a potential “water war” and warning about wider regional consequences.
Can India really hold back water?
Not in the short term.
Most experts agree that India currently lacks the storage capacity needed to stem large-scale flows. Construction of reservoirs, diversion structures and associated infrastructure will take years and require substantial investment.
What India can do is gradually utilize the large portion of water that the treaty already allows it to use, as well as accelerate projects that were previously moving slowly. Over time, this could reduce the amount of water reaching Pakistan during certain periods and increase India’s advantage as an upstream state.
Despite the change in modalities, what is clear is that the water-sharing agreement once celebrated as untouchable has entered its most consequential phase since the 1960s.
About the author
Apoorva Mishra is a News Editor at News18.com and has a keen interest in politics and current affairs. She loves uncovering new angles and telling stories through long-form features and explainers. Follow…read more
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