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Scheduled Castes account for about 21% of UP’s population – more than four crore Dalits and 85 reserved assembly seats out of 403 in the state – no major party can afford to ignore them.
According to census data, Scheduled Castes significantly influence the results in more than 150 constituencies in western, central and eastern UP. (PTI)
As Uttar Pradesh enters election mode ahead of the 2027 assembly elections, one political reality has become increasingly clear – the battle for Dalit votes, especially non-Jatav Dalits, who form about 21 per cent of Uttar Pradesh’s population, is set to play a key role in finalizing the political future of the country’s most populous state.
According to political experts in UP, the upcoming 2027 elections have been described as a ‘battle for Dalit votes’.
With Scheduled Castes constituting about 21 per cent of Uttar Pradesh’s population – that is, more than four crore Dalits and 85 out of 403 reserved assembly seats in the state – no major political party can afford to ignore this community. While the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) once had almost complete dominance over Dalit politics under the leadership of Mayawati, there has been a major churning in the last decade. The Bharatiya Janata Party succeeded in making deep inroads into non-Jatav Dalit communities after 2014, while the Samajwadi Party (SP) is now making aggressive efforts to recreate the backward-Dalit-minority alliance through its PDA – Backward, Dalit, Minority – formula.
As a result, there is an intense social and political competition going on far beyond rallies and slogans within the villages, Dalit settlements, beneficiary networks, caste organizations and WhatsApp groups of UP.
Political analyst Professor Shashikant Pandey, head of the department of political science at Dr. Bhimrao Ambedkar University, Lucknow, says the 2027 elections could witness one of the sharpest caste realignments in recent UP politics.
Pandey said, “Dalit politics in UP is no longer limited to BSP versus others. The BJP has expanded welfare-based political integration, while the Samajwadi Party is trying to revive the politics of social justice through the PDA narrative. The competition is now about dignity, welfare, representation and identity.”
BJP’s aggressive outreach towards Dalits intensified after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where the party suffered major setbacks in UP. BJP’s seats in the state declined from 62 seats in 2019 to 33 seats in 2024, while the SP-led Bharat Bloc saw a significant increase. Analysts cited the unity of Dalits, backward castes and Muslims behind the opposition alliance as a major reason for this change.
What happened in 2024?
The BJP’s biggest political concern after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections was the apparent shift among Dalit voters, especially non-Jatav Scheduled Castes, towards the SP-Congress led Indian bloc. While the BJP had successfully mobilized large sections of non-Jatav Dalits through welfare schemes, Hindutva mobilization and targeted caste outreach after 2014, there were signs of a decline in that support base in the 2024 elections.
This change became particularly visible in reserved constituencies. Of the 17 Scheduled Caste-reserved Lok Sabha seats in UP, the BJP, which had won all such seats in 2014 and 14 in 2019, is reduced to just eight in 2024. Political observers described this as one of the clearest indicators of social coalition fatigue within the BJP’s traditional support structure.
Analysts attributed the loss to several factors, including fears over reservations and the Constitution following the BJP’s “Par 400” campaign, unemployment concerns among Dalit youth, local anti-incumbency and the Samajwadi Party’s aggressive PDA outreach strategy.
“The BJP’s dominance weakened as a section of non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Scheduled Castes shifted to the opposition alliance,” Pandey said. “SP successfully transformed the discourse of social justice into electoral mobilization during the Lok Sabha elections.”
Political observers also say that Akhilesh Yadav’s strategy of giving greater representation to backward castes and Dalits in ticket distribution helped the SP grow beyond its traditional Muslim-Yadav base. Another important development was the decline of the BSP as a major electoral force. As the BSP failed to win a single Lok Sabha seat in Uttar Pradesh, a section of its traditional Dalit support base – particularly youth and non-Jatav voters – appeared more willing to experiment politically. The emergence of Chandrashekhar Azad in western Uttar Pradesh also added a new dimension to Dalit politics and youth mobilization.
This time BJP is trying to quickly regain the lost ground. Recently, the party has increased discussion on Dalit representation in both government and organization structures. Recent reports of cabinet expansion, promoting Dalit faces and organizational restructuring have gained momentum as the BJP attempts to counter the PDA issue politically and symbolically.
The Yogi Adityanath government has also appointed several Dalit ministers, including Baby Rani Maurya, Aseem Arun, Gulab Devi and Dinesh Khatik. Still, party insiders believe that representation alone may not automatically translate into electoral attraction, especially among young Dalit voters and non-Jatav communities.
Describing the BJP’s political strategy to woo the Dalit vote bank, political analysts said it rests on two pillars – welfare delivery and the Hindutva agenda.
Over the past decade, the party has aggressively pushed schemes like free ration distribution, PM Awas Yojana, toilets, Ayushman Bharat and direct benefit transfers among the economically weaker sections. Simultaneously, the BJP has sought to integrate Dalit communities within a larger Hindu political identity through symbolic outreach, Ambedkar commemorations, “Samarasata Bhoj” events, and celebration of sub-caste icons such as Maharishi Valmiki and Sant Ravidas.
A Lucknow-based political commentator said, “The BJP’s success among non-Jatav Dalits was because it moved beyond traditional upper caste politics and created a welfare-plus-recognition model, recognizing communities like Pasis, Valmikis, Koris and Khatiks.”
Non-Jatav Dalits are an important floating political group in Uttar Pradesh today. While the Jatavs, who are the largest Dalit subcaste, largely maintain emotional loyalty to Mayawati and the BSP, many other Dalit groups have shown electoral resilience.
According to census data, Scheduled Castes significantly influence the results in more than 150 constituencies in western, central and eastern UP. The data further states that Jatavs constitute more than half of the Dalit population of Uttar Pradesh, followed by Pasi, Dhobi, Kori, Valmiki and Khatik.
This fragmentation has opened up political space for all major parties.
The Samajwadi Party, which has historically struggled to gain the confidence of Dalits due to its perceived Yadav-centric image and old caste tensions during the Mulayam Singh Yadav era, is now attempting a reset through Akhilesh Yadav’s PDA strategy.
The PDA formula – Backwards, Dalits and Minorities – emerged as a key political slogan during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and subsequent by-elections. The SP deliberately increased representation for backward castes and Dalits in candidate selection, while also attempting to present itself as a major challenger to the BJP’s social alliance.
In several by-elections and local campaigns, the SP strategically fielded Dalit and Extremely Backward Class candidates to expand beyond its traditional Muslim-Yadav base. The party also raised issues such as reservation, caste census, unemployment and alleged social discrimination to connect with marginalized communities.
Pandey believes the SP’s challenge lies in converting temporary anti-BJP sentiment into long-term social trust. “The PDA strategy has given momentum to the Samajwadi Party, especially after the Lok Sabha elections. But maintaining Dalit support requires sustained grassroots engagement. Dalit voters today are more politically aware and transactional than ever before. Symbolism alone is inadequate,” he said.
Interestingly, even as BJP and SP have intensified their reach, BSP has retained its silent influence in many Dalit areas.
Despite being electorally weak, the BSP still has a booth-level network, emotional resonance among elderly Dalits and the enduring legacy of Kanshi Ram and Mayawati. Political observers argue that BSP’s original vote share may have reduced, but it has not disappeared completely.
In many villages of western and central Uttar Pradesh, blue flags, Ambedkar processions and local caste organizations have maintained a distinct Ambedkarite political identity. Young Dalit activists are also increasingly using social media platforms to push for political narratives around dignity, representation and constitutional rights.
Another major factor shaping Dalit politics is the growing conversation around caste census and reservation protection. Opposition parties have aggressively raised concerns about reservations, privatization and constitutional safeguards after the 2024 elections, while the BJP has tried to counter these narratives by projecting itself as a true implementer of welfare and social justice schemes.
Therefore the political fight is no longer merely ideological. This is deeply sociological.
In urban settlements and rural settlements, conversations now revolve around jobs, government recruitment, welfare access, local caste equations, police behavior and political respect. Young Dalit voters, especially first-time voters, are increasingly consuming political messaging through reels, YouTube channels and WhatsApp groups rather than traditional cadre networks.
The BJP still retains a tremendous organizational advantage and has benefited from welfare penetration and Hindutva consolidation. However, SP’s PDA statement has apparently irked the saffron party so much that it is ready to rearrange caste representation before 2027.
At present, Dalit politics of Uttar Pradesh is at a crossroads.
BJP wants to retain Dalits in a larger Hindu welfare alliance. Samajwadi Party wants to revive social justice strengthening through PDA politics. The BSP hopes that emotional loyalty and silent voters can help it regain lost ground. As the 2027 battle begins, one thing is certain: who wins Uttar Pradesh may be decided not just in temples or rallies, but inside Dalit families across the state.
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