Battery-powered electric vehicles (EVs) promise to decarbonize India’s rapidly growing road transport sector. However, it is not possible to achieve significant emissions reductions through widespread EV uptake. This depends on the energy performance of EVs and cross-sector linkages, especially in the power sector. This paper examines the complexities of the climate impact of the transition to electric drivetrains based on a data-driven analysis that best reflects real-world use of EVs. It provides actionable insights that call for interventions from policy to implementation level to maximize the climate benefits of India’s EV revolution.
India’s economic progress is inextricably linked to the expansion of its road transport network. The sector, while important, is a significant contributor to the country’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and deteriorating air quality. Globally promoted as a cornerstone of green transportation, EVs offer an attractive solution to mitigate these environmental challenges. However, in a country where fossil fuels still dominate electricity generation, the transition from petroleum to electrons for powering vehicles does not automatically lead to substantial emissions reductions.
This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the factors influencing the real climate benefits of EV adoption in India. It moves beyond simplistic comparisons of individual vehicle models and the assumption of a constant electricity supply mix across the country to examine the broader EV and energy landscape, considering:
- Variability of vehicle energy performance within and between different segments.
- The dynamic nature of India’s grid power supply, including temporal variations in renewable energy (RE) share.
- The critical role of EV charging patterns and its alignment with clean electricity availability.
- Geographic variation in electricity supply mix and its implications for regional EV strategies.
By dissecting these relationships, the paper aims to provide policy makers, implementing agencies, industry leaders and investors with the necessary insights to make informed decisions and unlock the full decarbonization potential of electric mobility in India.
Several studies have attempted to measure the emissions reduction potential of EVs. However, many rely on simplistic methods that may misrepresent the true climate impact. These approaches often fall short in several important aspects:
- Cherry-picking models for comparison: Focusing on comparisons between select EVs and conventional vehicle models fails to capture the wide range of energy efficiency that exists across vehicle segments. This may lead to misleading generalizations about the overall impact of EV adoption.
- Ignoring grid power supply dynamics: Assuming a constant national average grid power carbon dioxide (CO2) emission factor ignores the fluctuating nature of India’s power supply mix. RE, especially the share of solar and wind, varies significantly throughout the day, affecting emissions associated with EV charging at different times.
- Ignoring variable charging patterns: EV charging is not a constant load. Factors such as vehicle use-case, travel characteristics and availability of charging infrastructure influence when and where EVs are charged. Due to different charging patterns, EVs can largely avoid GHG emissions, provide limited climate dividends, or even consume more carbon space depending on their charging alignment with periods of high RE availability .
Analysis of a comprehensive dataset of vehicle models available in the Indian market confirms the inherent efficiency gains of EVs across nine different segments including two- and three-wheelers, passenger cars and buses. On average, EVs consistently demonstrate end-use energy consumption levels at least three times lower than their conventional counterparts. Furthermore, advances in battery technology and power electronics promise further improvements in EV efficiency, widening the gap in the coming years.
When the annual average carbon emission factor of India’s grid electricity is currently included, the emissions advantage of EVs diminishes. While generally still cleaner than vehicles with internal combustion engines, their emissions are directly linked to the proportion of fossil fuel used for power generation. This highlights the critical need to accelerate the decarbonization of the electricity grid to fully realize the emissions reduction potential of EVs.
This study highlights the profound impact of aligning EV charging with periods of high RE supply on the grid. Charging during the evening or night, which is characterized by increasing reliance on coal-fired power plants, produces significantly higher emissions than charging during the day, when sunshine reduces the carbon load of grid electricity.
The findings show that choosing the right charging time can make a significant difference to the emissions profile of an EV. Charging during the day can avoid approximately 10% more CO2 emissions than charging in the evening. This means an additional annual emissions reduction of 10 kg CO2 in the case of electric scooters and 106 kg for electric sedans.
The impact is even deeper for electric buses, where daytime charging is not only beneficial, but necessary to achieve meaningful emissions reductions.
For a variety of reasons, the majority of RE development in India is concentrated in a handful of states. Recognizing the diversity of power generation sources and associated emissions intensities across India is paramount for an effective decarbonization strategy. This paper analyzes the power purchase mix of nine major Indian cities, revealing substantial variation in the carbon footprint of their power supply. As a result, emissions from an EV can vary significantly depending on the city or state where it is operated. This underlines the need to increase renewable electricity generation capacity at the sub-national level and a regionally tailored approach to EV deployment and charging.
India’s desired low-carbon electricity pathway, detailed in the National Electricity Plan (NEP), is key to unlocking the climate benefits of the EV transition. The plan envisages a substantial increase in non-fossil fuel-based electricity generation, resulting in a projected decline in the grid emission factor by the end of this decade.
This clean energy transition will be critical to EVs. As the grid becomes increasingly decarbonized, the emissions gap between EVs and conventional vehicles will increase significantly. By FY 2031-2032, EVs are projected to achieve substantial emission reductions across all segments. However, this benefit is based on the alignment of EV charging with high RE share hours on the grid and/or large-scale deployment of long-term energy storage capacity.
Although the path to a clean transportation future through electric mobility is promising, several key challenges need to be addressed:
- Accelerating RE capacity addition: It will be essential to meet ambitious targets for solar and wind power deployment to achieve the desired grid decarbonization. The path to realizing goals is becoming shorter with each passing day.
- Managing RE intermittency: Optimum use of high shares of variable RE sources such as solar and wind requires significant investment in energy storage capacities, including pumped hydro and battery energy storage systems.
- Making clean electricity available for EV charging: Increasing the share of variable RE will further reduce the intermittent delivery of clean electricity, making it harder to decarbonize EV charging.
This paper emphasizes that the transition to a cleaner and more sustainable transportation future through vehicle electrification requires a holistic and realistic approach. It calls for coordinated action from policymakers, industry stakeholders and consumers, focusing on the following:
- Aligning EV charging with green hours: incentivizing daytime charging through daytime electricity rates tailored to regional contexts, providing public charging with travel patterns and leveraging charging flexibility in case of battery swapping .
- Promoting higher energy efficiency EVs: More efficient EV models by mandating energy labeling of traction battery packs and systems and setting more stringent CO2 emissions targets under future corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) enforcement cycles with expanded scope To promote production and marketing.
- Linking EV charging infrastructure with distributed RE resources: Facilitating cost-effective integration of charging facilities with RE at the local level through the application of renewable energy-as-a-service systems and mobility-life batteries for energy storage .
By adopting this multi-pronged strategy, India can harness the full potential of the EV transition to curb transportation emissions and move its mobility towards a sustainable future.
This paper can be accessed Here,
This paper is written by Shyamasis Das, Fellow, Energy, Resources and Sustainability, CSEP, New Delhi.
